Analysis by Renta 4
By 2026, the environment in which Acerinox operates has changed substantially due to external factors such as the new trade defence measures in Europe. The entry into force of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on 1 January and of the new safeguard measures on 1 July has brought about a radical change for the company. Both measures should curb Asian imports, with a consequent positive impact on both prices and volumes. According to R4, simply by reaching break-even at Acerinox Europe, EBIT will improve by the same amount as the losses recorded in 2025 (–€184.7 million).
At the same time, Acerinox has also made progress driven by internal factors such as the new efficiency plan, through which it aims to achieve a structural increase in the group’s EBITDA of €500 million (€300 million from organic projects, €68 million from integration synergies and €120 million from the “Beyond Excellence” efficiency improvement plan).
Against this backdrop, at Renta 4 we anticipate a gradual improvement in margins, particularly from 2027 onwards, the year in which we believe the new protectionist measures in Europe will take full effect. Consequently, we have slightly revised down our 2026 estimates, reflecting a smaller positive impact from the measures due to a greater-than-expected inventory adjustment by wholesalers, whilst we have revised upwards our estimates for subsequent years (see table) in line with the expected increase in prices and volumes.
All of this leads us to upgrade our recommendation to Overweight (against Hold) and raise our target price to 20 euros per share (against the previous 14.3 euros), which implies an implied 2027e EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1x, below its historical average of 8.7x.
We have valued Acerinox using a weighted average of DCF (WACC: 8.0% and g: 2.0%) and historical EV/EBITDA multiples (8.7x 2012–2025) applied to the average EBITDA for 2026 and 2027. We have increased the EBIT of the terminal value by €200 million, a figure we consider conservative as we are only factoring in 40% of the estimated savings from the new efficiency plan.
Recommendation: Overweight vs. Hold, Target Price up to €20 per share from €14.3
