Deutsche Bank | The steel giant will report its fourth-quarter results, and we expect stable figures in sequential terms, as more moderate results in North America and Brazil are likely to be offset by stronger contributions from Europe, Mining and Sustainable Solutions. EU spreads have already developed strongly, supported by stricter CBAM regulation, and we reflect the increase in steel prices and iron ore assumptions, raising our EBITDA estimates for fiscal year 2026-2027 by 3% to 5% and placing us 5% to 16% above market forecasts. This also raises the target prices to €47/£54 (from €42/£49). ArcelorMittal shares have performed well following the EC’s announcement of a new trade defence instrument (TDI). As we have detailed in previous notes, this policy could represent a radical change for the EU steel sector, creating the potential for significant margin expansion.
Stability for ArcelorMittal in Q4 despite difficulties and rising figures for 2026/27
