Banc Sabadell | From the interview with the president of Aena (AENA), Maurici Lucena, we highlight:
Regarding the 2027-2031 framework (Dora III), which is expected to be approved in September 2026 by the Council of Ministers, he comments that tariffs should increase moderately but less significantly than in 2026 (6.4% increase to €11.02/passenger), which according to the media can be interpreted as annual growth until 2032 of between 3% and 5%.
A number of airports are approaching their capacity limits (Barcelona, Madrid, Alicante, Málaga, etc.) and it is likely that we will see several simultaneous expansions.
Dora III will begin with a level of 1.3-1.4x DFN/EBITDA and there is plenty of room for growth in debt to manageable levels while maintaining the payout unchanged at 80%. He adds that the investment wave will continue between 2032 and 2036, in Dora IV.
He anticipates that 2025, pending final adjustments, has closed with a traffic increase of at least 3.9%, half a point above initial forecasts. He also expects that the figures for 2026 will not be as good, forecasting a slowdown compared to 2025.
Assessment: We welcome the chairman’s optimism regarding tariffs, but until Dora III is approved, we believe it is still too early to talk about an investment plan without having defined tariffs. Regarding tariffs and traffic in the medium term (Dora III), our P.O. is based on flat tariffs for the period with average traffic growth of 3%.
In terms of earnings performance, the good results are well known: in Q3 2025, it reported EBITDA 7.4% above consensus. And in terms of traffic, closing 2025 at the levels mentioned in the interview (3.9%) means maintaining the same growth reported in the first nine months of 2025.
