Morgan Stanley experts highlight “the currency markets’ normalization has started and they are already beginning to discount and to set a price on the possibility of interest rate rises in the United States before than expected. But even though bonds and currency are already reacting, they are still behind FOMC’s estimates. And as Yellen pointed out in the last press conference, the American curve has to adjust prices yet.”
The macro indicators continue strong. The employment data of last week were worse than expected but Morgan Stanley experts remind that it is a retarded indicator and they are still expecting a GDP growth of 4.9% in 2Q and 3.8% in 3Q.
According to Luc Luyet, Swissquote’s senior market analyst,, “in the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).”