The CDU falls by 8.2 points in Berlin and nearly eight in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it is reduced to 4.9% and obtains the worst regional result in its history. By failing to clear the electoral threshold, this will mark the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic that it is left out of a regional parliament.
Alice Weidel’s prophecy is beginning to come true. Following the victory of Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right leader predicted that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would never win a federal election again. Two weeks later, that omen has found its first regional echo: the CDU has lost Berlin, vanished from the Parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and strung together three defeats that turn every trip to the ballot box into a referendum on the chancellor.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), its partner in the federal government, obtains 12.1% in Berlin—its worst historical result in the capital—and loses four points as well as first place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The Greens, for their part, reach 14.3% of the vote.
AfD comes out on top in Mecklenburg with 38.3%, after coming close to an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt. But winning does not mean governing: no party is willing to form a coalition with the far-right group, and Manuela Schwesig is most likely to remain at the helm of the state if she manages to assemble an alternative majority. Die Linke, by contrast, wins in Berlin with 25.6%, and Elif Eralp could indeed lead a coalition with the Greens and the Social Democrats. The elections do not alter the composition of the Bundestag, but they reflect a reality: the country’s growing political fragmentation and the increasing difficulty of forming majorities.
