Bankinter | We revise estimates and recommendation. Solid demand and good financial position.
We are upgrading our recommendation from Buy (under review). We set our Target Price: €171.5/share (from €127.8/share).
Airbus has solid demand, long-term growth potential and a strong financial position. It is managing the two fronts that led to the profit warning in mid-2024: supply chain difficulties and analysing strategic options for Space Programs.
The targets for 2025 show expectations of improvement in deliveries and cash generation. The outlook may be affected by tariff risk (although it should be remembered that the sector has already experienced a dispute and reached an agreement in 2021). Meanwhile, increased investment in Defence could favour its Defence and Space division.
Accelerating the pace of production remains the main challenge, hand in hand with improving supply chains. The potential from the current level is limited (+2%), but it also has a good financial position that has allowed for extraordinary dividends in the last two financial years (RpD 24 +1.8%). Our estimates point to a progressive improvement in Revenue that could be revised upwards as the normalisation of supply chains is confirmed or as a possible catalyst for investment in Defence.
