Banc Sabadell | IAG (IAG) presented its strategic plan, ‘Flight Plan 2030’, for Iberia (25% of IAG’s capacity in 2024), with which it hopes to consolidate its position as leader in its main markets. We highlight the main messages:
Capacity growth of 3/5% over the next few years, without specifying a period, with LatAm as the main market with expected growth of 5%.In the medium term (no specific period given), they expect to achieve an operating profit of €1.4 billion (up 36% versus 2024; approx. €370 million), which would correspond to a margin of 13.5-15% at the upper end of IAG’s target range (12-15%). Of this improvement, 1/3 will come from revenue improvement and 2/3 from costs, where non-fuel CASK is expected to reach 2019 levels, which would imply a CACC’24/30e of -1%.Capex of €6 billion for the coming years (until 2035) to invest in new capacity (with the acquisition of new aircraft), product, technology, etc.
Assessment: Although the messages were positive, we believe that the lack of a clear time frame, as well as the current geopolitical uncertainty, will limit the market’s ability to take this into account in the short term.
