The EZ to grow by 0,2% in 2012 against the IMF’s forecast of -0,5%

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By Julia Pastor, in Madrid | The eventual coming out of green shoots within the dark scenery outlined by the world economy is well worth a mention. The analysts at the City of Madrid emphasise three good macroeconomic figures. Particularly, Santander refers in their analysis to Europe’s PMIs, which even in recessive zone at 48.8, compared to previous 46.9 of December, are standing at their highest mark in the last five months and showing signs of improvement in Italy as well as in Spain. According to experts’ calculations, this indicators figures would give a contraction for the euro zone’s GDP by 0.2%, which means not a few significant increase against the IMF’s expectations of -0.5%, appeared in the last institution’s outlook report.

At the other side of the Atlantic, it would happen exactly the same. The equivalent indicador to the European PMIs, the January U.S Manufacturing ISM, reaching to 54,1, would also rise the country’s GDP growth by 2,6% in 2012, over the 1,8% reported by the IMF.

To conclude the chapter of figures, in the other nerve centre of the global economy, China, the PMIs indexes have also raised by 0,2% up to 50,5 points.

In the section of facts, the Spanish analysts mention the importance of two news. On the one hand, they insist on

“the incipient re-opening of the financial market debt (senior and covered) in the peripherals countries the current week, whis is an excellent new. As well as it is also very good the fact that the Bank of Italy is to relax the regulations about tenders of hybrids. According to Bloomberg, the new tenders expected in Italy could reduce the core capital needs by 20 basis points.”

On the other hand, the supposedly inminent agreement in Greece seems to be at a reachable distance, at last, the present week. The opinion of the responsible for the IMF’s mission at Greece, Paul Thomsen and the Greek minister of Economy Evangelos Venizelos is the same in this matter.

Thomsen says that “the agreement is a matter of days,” while Venizelos commented on Wednesday that “we are just one step far from closing the agreement.”

Now they are talking about losses of 70% in Net Present Value, but with possible incentives linked to Greece growth economy, that consequently could reduce those.

“Anyway, discussions are based on how to complete the new deficit identified in Greece,” remind the experts. Furthermore, they add that “according to some news, The Netherlands would be now trying to force the ECB to contribute to the Greek rescue by accepting losses in its bonds portfolio.”

About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.

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