Bankinter | Germany’s trade balance for August increases to €17.2 billion versus €16.3 billion (revised from €14.7 billion). Exports fell by 0.5% versus the rise of 0.2% expected against a 0.2% drop previously (revised from 0.6% down). Imports contracted by 1.3% versus a drop of 0.5% expected against a drop of 0.7% (revised from 0.1% down).
Analysis team’s view: The increase in the balance is explained by the more pronounced fall in imports and responds to weak domestic demand, as seen yesterday with the sharp drop in industrial production. Exports also fell: tariffs from the US and strong competition from the Chinese market continue to weigh on the foreign sector. Shipments to the US and China have fallen so far in 2025 by 6.5% and 12.6% respectively compared to the same period last year.
On the other hand, the German government has improved its growth estimates. It expects the economy to grow 0.2% year-on-year as opposed to 0.0% previously in 2025, 1.3% against 1.0% previously in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
Following the contraction seen in 2023 and 2024, the government projected a gradual improvement in the economy thanks to the fiscal stimulus measures approved, the infrastructure and defence investment plan and the clarification of tariffs with the agreement reached with the US in August.
