Luis Alcaide | “The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data prepared by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank retreated to 49.6 points in November, falling below the 50 points of the previous month (above 50 points indicates expansion, and below indicates contraction). By country, Germany marks 48.2 and France 47.8, while Spain records 51.5 and Italy 50.6.” The influx of new orders in the manufacturing sector is increasing in the two Southern European countries, suggesting that their production will expand in the coming months.
The OECD, for its part, is not limited to the evolution of the manufacturing sector but analyzes the Spanish economy in detail, while keeping international references in mind. Indeed, while the global economy has shown resilience despite tariffs and political uncertainty, the OECD stresses that the Spanish economy has advanced at a faster rate of expansion than the rest of the developed countries. Spanish economic growth is expected to be 2.9% in 2025, with a forecast of 2.2% in 2026.
The OECD also notes its concern about the rise in stock market valuations given the non-improbable case of a loss of confidence in the profitability of Artificial Intelligence. Furthermore, the OECD does not completely rule out the negative effects on international trade caused by the tariff barriers encouraged by Trump.
In the case of Spain, the OECD insists on the continuous progress and resilience of its economy amidst global risks. This growth, however, is expected to slow down without a decline in activity, thus maintaining fiscal sustainability.
Indeed, the Spanish public deficit relative to GDP, including the cost of the DANA storm (0.25% of GDP) and Defense spending (2% of GDP), will continue to fall thanks to a greater increase in tax collection and a consolidation of public spending, along with an improvement in the tax base generated by an increase in employment, higher wages, and the introduction of a 15% global minimum tax rate for multinational companies. A fiscal future that is not too bleak, though it is threatened in the medium term. Hence the OECD’s recommendations regarding the viability of the pension system.
In any case, the OECD confirms that in Spain, economic activity, which accelerated in 2024, accompanied by a decrease in inflation, forecasts moderate alarm amidst a risky international environment. Indeed, a GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 following a 3.5% growth in 2024, and economic activity that did not slow down in the third quarter of 2025. The labor market has sustained an increasing pace of job creation, up 2.5% year-on-year, supported by immigration, while unemployment fell to 10.5% of the active population. Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies grew, while unemployment subsidies and temporary disability benefits were improved. Furthermore, the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan has provided strong support for businesses and private investment.
Looking ahead, the OECD urges government authorities to continue supporting businesses, making the regulation of economic activity more flexible, and improving the efficiency of all administrative levels: central, regional, and municipal.
According to the OECD report, Spaniards should ask themselves why we are not proud of our economic performance during these difficult years.
