Deutsche Bank | The 2025 fourth-quarter earnings season for Spanish banks will begin with Bankinter on 22 January and conclude with Sabadell on 6 February. Overall, we expect another solid quarter, with little change in the trends seen in Q3 2025, although with some seasonal adjustments typical of Q4. Net interest margin is likely to confirm a further recovery, helped by volumes, despite some additional effects from the interest rate review, while the decline in funding costs continues (albeit at a slower pace). Fees should increase slightly compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to seasonality, but with substantial support from the assets under management business, backed by the strong inflows seen in the quarter. In addition, costs and provisions should increase compared to previous quarters, driven by variable payments and the fact that CoR is approaching forecasts for the year, although without any structural changes. Capital levels, meanwhile, should not change much, as most of the impact comes from the adjustment of operational risk models and, in some cases, strong dividend payments.
Solid but uneventful Q4 2025 for Spanish banks
