The Bank of Spain estimates that the increased internal and external uncertainties surrounding the Spanish economy in 2016 shaved four tenths of a percentage point off GDP growth, as well as one percentage point off the increase in consumption and 2,4 percentage points off the increase in private investment.
In a report published by the Bank of Spain entitled ‘Macroeconomic uncertainty measuring its impact on the Spanish economy’, the central bank makes these calculations comparing the synthetic European indicators of uncertainty registered in 2016 and what they would have been if the levels of uncertainty observed in the fourth quarter of 2015 were maintained.
The Bank of Spain points out that a “significant part” of the macroeconomic effect of the increase in uncertainty during last year had its origin outside Spain. In fact, discounting the external sources of uncertainty in 2016, the uncertainty generated just by Spain would only have shaved one tenth of a percentage point of GDP and consumption, and two-tenths off the rise in investment.
Turning to the start of 2017, the Bank of Spain warns that the Spanish economy is progressing against a backdrop of “high uncertainty”, along the lines of what happened during most of last year, associated to a large extent with geopolitical events. These include the results of the referendums held in Italy on the Constitution and, above all, in the UK last June, leading to its decision to leave the EU, as well as Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections.