Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team
The Funcas Panel has revised its growth forecast for this year upwards by one-tenth of a percentage point, to 2.3%. The revision reflects the resilience shown by the Spanish economy in the second quarter, with growth estimated at 0.5%, one-tenth of a percentage point higher than expected in the previous Panel forecast. However, this is one-tenth of a percentage point lower than in the first quarter, and the panellists expect the slowdown to continue in the coming months. Thus, growth will slow in the third quarter, with an increase of 0.4%, a figure that is expected to be repeated in the final quarter. The additional one-tenth of a percentage point stems from a greater contribution from domestic demand. The external sector, for its part, will subtract four-tenths of a percentage point.
Furthermore, the Panel shows a shift in the assessment of risk in a favourable direction. Whilst in the previous survey the vast majority of panellists considered the risk of forecasts being missed to be on the downside, the majority now consider the risk of forecasts being missed to be on the upside or balanced.
For 2027, the GDP growth forecast remains at 2 per cent. The slowdown will be due to weaker investment and consumption, both public and private, which would reduce the contribution from domestic demand by up to 2.1 percentage points. The external sector would subtract one-tenth of a percentage point. Quarter-on-quarter growth rates for GDP are expected to stand at around 0.5 per cent throughout the year.
The panellists forecast that the headline inflation rate will rise slightly in the coming months, although it would end the year at 3% in December, with an annual average of 3.2%, one-tenth of a percentage point higher than in the previous Panel. For 2027, an annual average of 2.3% and a year-on-year rate of 2.1% are expected in December. As for the core rate, the forecast remains at 2.7% for 2026, whilst next year’s forecast has been revised up by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.5%.
The consensus expects employment growth of 2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. The average annual unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10 per cent this year and 9.6 per cent next year, unchanged from the previous Panel.
The public deficit estimate remains at 2.5 per cent for this year and rises by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.4 per cent for 2027. However, there is considerable disparity between the forecasts of the various panellists for both periods (ranging from a low of 2.1% to a high of 2.9% for 2026 and from 2% to 2.8% for 2027).
The panellists have factored in the turning point marked by the agreement in the Middle East, although they remain cautious in their assessments of the international environment. The majority continue to regard this as unfavourable, both within and outside the EU, and believe the situation will persist over the coming months.
The moderation in inflation in Europe suggests a pause in the ECB’s interest rate rises, following June’s increase to 2.25 per cent.
In fact, the panellists expect the deposit facility rate to remain at that level throughout the forecast horizon. Against this backdrop, the one-year Euribor has also levelled off, standing at around 2.7 per cent. The panellists forecast a further decline in the coming months, bringing it to around 2.5 per cent by the end of 2027.
