Bankinter | Black Friday online sales increase by 9.1% to $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. – According to Mastercard, 10.4%. AI-induced sales 805%. Companies such as Walmart (Sparky) and Amazon (Rufus) have launched AI search tools this year that facilitate a faster and more guided product selection process. Salesforce estimates that AI has generated global online sales of $14.2 billion (£12.6 billion) ($3 billion in the US, 25% of the total). Salesforce, whose figures include purchases of non-discretionary products such as food, also estimates online sales growth of 3%. In volume terms, growth is estimated at 1%, while the average selling price is estimated to have increased by 7%. The number of purchases per transaction fell by 2% according to Salesforce.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: These figures are not sufficient to assess the overall performance of the Christmas campaign. They cover only one day which, although important, represents only around 17% of seasonal spending. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates growth in Christmas campaign spending of 3.7%/4.2% vs. 4.3% in 2024. This moderation can be explained by the loss of purchasing power of households in a context of high inflation, unemployment at a four-year high and consumer confidence at a seven-month low.
However, some conclusions can be drawn: (i) online sales continue to grow faster than physical sales. (ii) AI is emerging as a driving force for sales. AI-induced sales are growing by 805%. AI is used to compare prices and product features and to find the best deals. (iii) Although there are no specific figures, luxury goods and accessories are among the most popular categories. (iv) Discount levels have been in line with last year’s, which is positive for margins. (v) Spending continues to be concentrated among the highest income groups: the top 10% account for 48% of total consumption, compared to an average of 35% ten years ago, hence the preference for more premium products. Adobe Analytics estimates that Cyber Monday sales will grow by 6.3% to £14.2 billion today.
