Bankinter | The Empire State manufacturing activity index disappointed in September, entering negative territory. The indicator stood at -8.7 versus 5.0 expected and 11.9 previously.
Analysis team’s view: The indicator, which surveys nearly 200 executives in the manufacturing industry in New York State, weakened due to a significant drop in demand. The components of New Orders (negative 19.6 versus 15.4 previously) and Shipments (negative 17.3 versus 12.2 previously) fell the most, reflecting their worst performance since April 2024. Both the number of employees (negative 1.2 versus 4.4 previously) and Average Hours Worked (negative 5.1 versus 0.2 previously) were also affected. These data confirmed the weakening of the labour market and US economic activity, and are further arguments for the Fed to continue lowering rates after its meeting on 17 September, at which it will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00/4.25%.
