Bankinter | The International Energy Agency has raised its production estimate for the United States in 2025, but maintains its global demand estimate. Specifically, it forecasts that US production will reach 13.59mbd in 2025 versus the previous estimate of 13.55mbd.
On the other hand, it maintains its demand estimate for the United States at 20.5mbd. Globally, it estimates that production will increase by 1.7mbd in 2025, while consumption will increase by 1.4mbd in 2025 and 1mbd in 2026 and will come mainly from China and India. In any case, growth will still be lower than before the pandemic.
On the other hand, it does not expect the US tariffs on Canada and Mexico to have a significant impact on global supply, while the recent sanctions on Russia are a source of uncertainty as to what impact they may have.
Bankinter’s analysis team opinion: The International Energy Agency is once again warning of global oil overproduction. This news reaffirms our opinion: the price of oil will moderate in the coming years due to economic slowdown, particularly in China (the world’s leading oil importer), global overproduction (especially from the United States), the rise of alternative energies and greater global energy efficiency. As we published in our Quarterly Strategy Report 2025, we estimate that Brent will stand at $68 at the end of 2025 and $65 at the end of 2026. The IEA estimates an average of $74 in 2025 and $66 in 2026. In recent days we have seen an increase in the price, but we think that this is only a one-off event: the sanctions imposed by the US on an international network that facilitated the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China. This news caused Brent to rise 3.6% to $77.
