Bankinter | Online sales at the start of the long shopping weekend that begins with ‘Thanksgiving’ increase 4% vs. 2% in 2023 according to Salesforce. On Thanksgiving Day they amount to $7.5bn, 1% vs. 2023.
Opinion of Bankinter’s analysis team: Very preliminary data from which we should not draw too many conclusions. The National Retail Federation forecasts that sales in the Holiday Season (1 November to 31 December) will grow 2.5%/3.5% vs. 3.9% in 2023. They will reach $979,500M/989,000 million. NRF estimates online sales to grow 8%/9% to $295.1 billion/297.9 billion vs. 10.7% in 2023.
Forecasts for the major retail and fashion groups are mixed. Target expects flat sales in the last quarter of the year and last week lowered its earnings guidance for this quarter (EPS of $1.85/$2.45 vs. $2.65 expected by consensus). Kohl’s and Macy’s also forecast lower demand than last year this season. Walmart, despite raising guidance for the year (EPS $2.42/$2.47 vs. $2.35/$2.43 previously), has also stated that it has bought less stock than last year for the Christmas season. This historically represents 19% of total sales for the year for the sector. In the opposite direction, firms such as Abercrombie & Fitch and GAP have raised their forecasts ahead of what they anticipate to be a good Christmas season.
