Bankinter | In its monthly report, OPEC states that Kazakhstan’s production increase was 363,000bp, to a total production of 41.01Mbd. The increase more than doubles the total production increase forecast by OPEC for April: 138,000bp. Kazakhstan is increasing its production thanks to the Tangiz field, operated by Chevron. Specifically, it is producing 1.767 Mbd, a level that compares with 1.570 Mbd in January and 1.468 Mbd of permitted quota. Other countries are also said to be producing above their quotas, such as the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Gabon. In its monthly report, OPEC maintains its estimate of global demand: it estimates an increase of 1.45mbd in 2025 and 1.46mbd in 2026.
This level is higher than the forecast of the International Energy Agency: 1.1mbd in 2025.
Analysis team’s opinion: Kazakhstan’s increased production is one of the reasons why OPEC has decided to increase production from April, specifically it will increase production each month by 138,000 bd, until it reaches approximately 2.2 Mbd in July 2026. This increase above Kazakhstan’s quota has also led to internal conflicts within OPEC, among other producers who also want to produce above their quotas. This news reinforces our opinion to Sell the sector. In our opinion, the price of oil will moderate in the coming years due to the economic slowdown, particularly in China (the world’s leading oil importer), global overproduction (especially from the US), the rise of alternative energies and greater global energy efficiency. As we published in our Quarterly Strategy Report 2025, we estimate that Brent will stand at $68 at the end of 2025 and $65 at the end of 2026.
