Bankinter: The Leading Indicator declines more than expected in March: down 0.7% month-on-month in March against the drop of 0.5% estimated and 0.2% previous (revised from 0.3%). The main detractors are Consumer Expectations, Stock Prices and Manufacturing Orders (ISM).
By contrast, Average Hours Worked, Building Permits and Unemployment Claims contributed positively.
Of the 10 components that make up the indicator, half contribute negatively.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative data for the cycle, which mainly reflects consumer concerns (in March Consumer Confidence disappointed by falling to 92.9 against 100.1 pre, its lowest level since January 2021) and the deterioration of ISM Manufacturing, which entered the contraction zone by falling to 49.0 versus 50.3 pre and, reflects the impact of the tariff war and points to a fall in terms of activity.
Negative impact on stock markets and more positive for bonds as it accelerates a shift of investment from stocks to bonds.
