Morgan Stanley | Following expected strength during the summer, our analyst Martijn Rats believes that the market will return to surplus figures and that prices will continue to weaken in 2H25 to $60/bbl. Large inventories have been built up during 1H25, but only 10% of these are in OECD commercial centres. Therefore, the expert expects that throughout the summer, the price will remain stable in the face of a more balanced supply-demand situation, and then, due to the impact of tariffs on demand and the growth of OPEC and non-OPEC supplies, the market will reach a surplus of 1.3-1.6 M b/d in Q4. However, the price of oil is expected to remain at around $60/bbl through 2026, as global inventories are at 53% and any price drop below that level will likely be bought up.
Oil likely to stabilise at $60 with surplus figures in 2H25
