oil prices

petroleo rusiaCM

Potential short-term easing in crude oil risk premiums, falling by around 14% to below $100

Norbolsa | US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, shortly before his ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe attacks on its civilian infrastructure expired. This change in tone follows previous warnings of a sharp escalation, highlighting the high sensitivity of the conflict to political factors and last-minute negotiations. Pakistan’s mediation, led by military chief Asim Muniry and Prime Minister Shehbaz…


IPC carburantes

Spanish Treasury profits from Iran conflict: nearly €300 million extra collected in March due to fuel price hikes

The Government has yet to activate any aid plan to mitigate the impact of energy prices on households, businesses, and the self-employed. Consequently, public coffers are amassing millions following the restoration of tax rates that had been previously reduced after the war in Ukraine. Specifically, the recovery of VAT, the end of the gas price cap, and the progressive increase in electricity taxes pushed tax collection at the end of…


pdvsa

Brent falls 1.3% below $60/bbl after Trump announces Venezuela to sell 30-50 million barrels to US at market prices

Norbolsa | The price of Brent has fallen 1.3% in two sessions and dropped below $60/b after Trump announced his plan to sell 30-50 million barrels of blocked Venezuelan oil to the US ($2.8 billion). On the other hand, it is likely that Trump will meet with American oil companies on Friday to discuss entry and investment in Venezuela. While the market believes that reviving the sector in Venezuela will…


oilprices

Oil likely to stabilise at $60 with surplus figures in 2H25

Morgan Stanley | Following expected strength during the summer, our analyst Martijn Rats believes that the market will return to surplus figures and that prices will continue to weaken in 2H25 to $60/bbl. Large inventories have been built up during 1H25, but only 10% of these are in OECD commercial centres. Therefore, the expert expects that throughout the summer, the price will remain stable in the face of a more…


The US has asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers to increase oil production

Contrary to OPEC+ measures, Saudi Arabia to raise oil production, abandoning target for Brent above $100/b.

Bankinter: Saudi Arabia prepares to increase oil production. Thus abandoning its objective of placing Brent at ~$100/barr. An increase in production means taking a decision that is the opposite of the measures that OPEC+ was applying. For reference, it is currently cutting 5.86M barrels of oil per day (bpd), which corresponds to around 5.7% of world oil demand. Within the aforementioned cuts, 3.66M bpd will be extended until the end…


oil

Falling oil prices appear to be a supportive factor for the market in the short term

François Rimeu (La Française AM) | The OPEC meeting resulted in maintaining the oil production cuts, as expected by the markets. Beyond this decision, investors were reassured by the possibility of these production cuts decreasing in the fall. Coupled with disappointing U.S. growth figures, this meeting had a significant impact on crude oil, which has dropped by 8% since the end of April. Again, this decline seems to be more…


Israel Palestina

Potential implications of conflict in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty: increased security spending, oil disruption and rising risk premia

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Zezas (Head of US Policy) discusses the potential implications of an environment of geopolitical uncertainty, and where there is the potential for more countries to become involved in the recent open conflict in the Middle East. Although he acknowledges that there may be further consequences that are very difficult to predict, he highlights three conclusions where conviction is highest: 1.- Increased spending on Security => European and…



oil barrels

US oil inventories fall to 1982 lows

Norbolsa| Brent continues to rise this week to over $86/B, at the same time that US oil inventory data fell by 15.4 million barrels (1.37 million expected), according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures (official data due out today), marking the largest drop in crude inventories since 1982. Oil prices are expected to rise further in the coming months following Saudi Arabia’s reduction of 1m/b per day from July.


OPEC cut to impact Spanish economy

Diesel At 2 Euros A Litre At 780 Spanish Petrol Stations

Fuel prices give no respite. The 20 cents per litre rebate that has been in force since 1 April has partially relieved the pockets of millions of Spanish drivers. But diesel and petrol prices continue to rise at Spanish service stations. Diesel, in fact, has broken a new record this week, reaching 1.872 euros per litre on average, surpassing the price of petrol for the fifth consecutive week. This is…