oil prices

petroleo barrilesTC

OPEC’s Ground Hog Day

Julius Baer Research| As speculation swirls ahead of next month’s informal oil producer meeting, it feels like ground hog day in the oil market. With prices diving into the lower 40s per barrel, talks about supply cuts from oil cartel’s members, OPEC, have resurfaced. We see the chances of any action as exceptionally slim.



upstream oil

When Commodities Crash, Populists Suffer


The precipitous drop in oil prices in particular has forced rentier states, which were able to count on massive energy profits to fund generous state largesse up until a few years ago, to diversify their economic relationships with Europe and the rest of the world. These profits allowed states like Saudi Arabia and Iran to get by with incredibly inefficient economies, which officials in both countries are now actively restructuring in order to stimulate real growth and attract international business.


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The “Magic” Oil Price To Increase Drilling Activity For US E&Ps Is…$50

UBS | US E&Ps cut capex by ~40% YoY in 2015 & are budgeted to cut >50% YoY this year. This has caused the US oil rig count to plunge from a peak of 1,609 in 2H14 to 328 (7- year low). But as spot WTI prices have moved from <$30/Bbl earlier this year to ~$46/Bbl currently, one of the key questions energy investors are asking is when will US E&Ps begin to add rigs?


Repsol

Repsol: Undesirable Consequences

The drop in oil prices and the belief – rarely justified by experience – that things will never be what they were, have begun to set off alarm bells in some of the major sporting activities. These have provided an amazing bounty of triumphs thanks to Repsol’s generous patronage.


upstream oil

Oil Companies’ Upstream Spend Down 27% And Falling

BARCLAYS | Despite the recent firming in oil prices, crude remains firmly below the level that we would consider being conducive to additional investment. As such spending continues to come under pressure, with our recently published upstream spending survey showing that companies have revised down budgets by a further 15% since January.


EM out

EM Equities Outperforming! Can This Be True?

UBS | The current global growth scare, which has recently focused on the US, has set off a train of events that, rather implausibly, is leading to modest outperformance by EM (v. DM) equities in down markets so far this year. We explain this very simply; worries over the US economy have pulled the dollar lower and have, for now, taken some, much – needed, currency pressure off EM equity markets.


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What Oil Prices Mean for Geopolitics

Atlantic Sentinel | Year 2003 was a different era. The US waged a war of choice in Iraq; Vladimir Putin’s Russia was seen as a paper tiger; China’s economic boom roared but didn’t threaten; Dubai was unknown; and the United States seemed like it would forever be an oil importer. Much has changed.


Stop being crude – US crude oil versus retail oil prices (rebased)

The imminent inflation increase

London | UBS | At the risk of making an obvious point, the fall in crude oil prices is not all there is to the impact of oil on consumer price inflation.