For any investor who believes that $70/barrel is more or less the right price, then the European oil firms are currently fairly priced. Alphavalue recently upped their earnings forecasts to include $70/barrel as a new normality. This leaves the sector with an upside potential of +6% on a 6-month horizon.
Morgan Stanley | The increase on the demand side, with inventories at 5-year minimums and the new martime transport regulation, leads us to raise our forecasts for oil prices to $90 in Q1 2020.
Donald Trump has announced the US’ withdrawal from the agreement with Iran and will reimpose economic sanctions on that country. Bankinter analysts believe OPEC and Russia hold the possible solution to the crude supply problem, substituting the production which could be withdrawn from Iran.
Near-dated crude oil prices have rallied on robust demand and falling inventories, but long-dated prices have not moved. BoAML’s analysts see close to 1.5 mn b/d of output oil facing some risk of disruption, primarily across Venezuela, Iran, and Libya.
European buybacks seem to be increasing by approximately 25 billion euros to a universe of 420 shares (excluding the banks) with a combined market capitalisation of 8 billion euros.
Oil continues to flirt with USD 70 per barrel and it remains to be seen if prices are able to lastingly settle above this much-watched level with the latest up move. Global growth optimism, the bullish market mood and technical momentum still provide robust support.
The Crown Prince and de-facto ruler of the Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, (MBS) launched an anti-corruption drive to safeguard the reform and modernization of the Saudi economy. Oil meanwhile looks to have broken out to the upside, which is very much a function of Brent Crude rather than West Texas Intermediate. The gap down started to open in August with Hurricane Harvey, not now with Saudi developments.
Citi’s research analysts targets two significant issues on this recent decline: disinflation pressures and what would happen if oil prices don’t recover.
Energy markets has been taking a beating with oil and natural gas prices down across the board. For once, the fundamental news flow was ample. The US Energy Administration reported their weekly set of data, which showed a stronger-than-expected increase of crude oil and oil products in storage.
The commodity complex continues to soften with oil prices sliding below USD 50 per barrel and Chinese heavy industry commodities rushing lower. The resource reflation tide recedes with benchmark indices such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index trending towards last year’s levels. Commodity prices revert towards fundamentally reasonable levels on supply rather than demand trends.