MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Monetary policy has worked in the countries which have implemented it without feeling ashamed. The US, UK, Japan or even Switzerland have reactivated their economies and diminished wealth imbalances, at least in comparison with the euro zone. However it is also truth that QE efficiency has performed poorly.
PUERTO RICO | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes | Some might say I have a sociopathological hatred for quantitative easing, an atavistic reaction that compels me to find reasons, sensible sounding or otherwise, for detesting and opposing QE. But I have many reasons for opposing QE.
MADRID | By Carlos Díaz Guell | Federal funds’ main interest rates, currently at 0% and 0.25%, are likely to remain untouched. Why? The Fed explained it wouldn’t increase them unless unemployment rate falls.
Julio López (Attitude Gestión SGIIC) | Never has a recession been more unanimously expected. Interest rate hikes and lower government spending should have slowed economic growth, yet we don’t see it today. But the question is, has there really been such a reversal in monetary and fiscal policies? It is true that the FED has tried to reduce its balance sheet, but the small crisis in the American banking sector…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | The ECB hiked policy rates by 50bp and pre-committed to hike by another 50bp in March. The depo rate now stands at 2.50%. Looking ahead, the ECB is widely committed to keep rates in restrictive territory to reach the inflation target in the medium term. The overall communication by the ECB remains relatively hawkish as the policy stance remains restrictive. That said, the market…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The assassination on 8 July 2022 of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister Shinzo Abe was one of the most shocking and saddest events in contemporary Japanese history. Abe had surprised Japanese citizens with his sudden health-related resignation in 2020. His resignation opened the way for Japan’s then foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, to win Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) support and the November 2021 general election, to become…
The ECB will abruptly reduce gross purchases of corporate debt from July, from a monthly average of €8 billion of gross purchases in the first five months of 2022 to just €1.8 billion for reinvestments. With the ECB’s announcement yesterday of the end of net APP purchases as of July, a six-year period of corporate QE comes to an end (since 2016 and with the exception of 2019) and has…
Peter Goves, MFS Investment Management | Despite acknowledging the uncertainty stemming from the Ukraine conflict, the ECB policy decision had a hawkish tilt. Indeed, the ECB chose to wind down the APP schedule more quickly than the December guidance and revised its rate guidance. The ECB also tweaked its guidance and removed a previous dovish bias which referenced the prospect of rates remaining at present or lower levels. The market…
Tatiana Orlova (Oxford Economics) | In the early hoursoftoday, Russian military forces attacked military targets across Ukraine. Border guards reported that Ukraine’s territory was being shelled from five regions, including Crimea and Belarus. Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Although a protracted…