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Comercio recursoTC

Spanish economy 16th December 2014

Inflation in Spain: Negative territory for 5 consecutive months

MADRID | The Corner | Spain’s final CPI in November was exactly the same as preliminary estimates: -0.4% yoy and -0.1% per month. The inter-annual rate has registered its fifth month in deflation, whereas the month-on-month rate was recorded as negative for the first time in 4 months. Throughout 2014, there were only three months with negative rates. Both the acceleration of the fall in oil prices and the stability of the dollar/euro explain these figures.

LTRO

Markets 15th December 2014

The ECB easing fails to fly

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Just cast a look at the dismal performance of the medium-term targets of LTRO liquidity tenders, that amount to barely a fifth of the amount pumped in three years ago. 

dollar rollo TC

World economy 12th December 2014

The Fed’s motto: Mistakes should be repeated!

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Fed officials have great difficulty in thinking outside the box, ceaselessly repeating themselves. If they stopped to think for a moment they would see what´s very different now from what presented itself ten years ago. And the significant difference is not in the rate of inflation or the rate of unemployment, but in the level trend and growth rate of nominal spending

Palomas HalconesTC

In Europe 6th December 2014

Hawks and Doves in the ECB

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The British multimillionaire Gavyn Davies, former partner at Goldman Sachs and former chairman at the BBC, gave an excellent analysis of the insurmountable differences within the ECB’s Governing Council between Mr Draghi and Mr Weidmann. In the FT macroeconomics blog, Davies says that the distance is greater than the one between the Fed’s “hawks” and “doves”. Mr Draghi is doctrinally closer to Mr Bernanke; meanwhile Mr Weidmann is much more aligned to the right wing than the Fed’s “hawks” –so much so that it seems he represents the Austrian school. 

No Picture

Markets 5th December 2014

“The ECB is almost apologetic about the lack of growth and the weak inflation”

MADRID | The Corner | According to Patrice Gautry, chief economist at UBP, there is little doubt that monetary policy – due to be presented in detail at the beginning of next year – will be revised and reshuffled as follows: 1) bigger ECB spending; 2) more of a focus on private and public bond purchases rather than on LTROs and ABS and CoCo purchases.In short, broadened QE should kick in on 22 January, at the next ECB meeting.

No Picture

World economy 2nd December 2014

Global Banks Outlook 2015: A year of diverging interest rates

ZURICH | By UBS analysts | We have a neutral stance on global banks as we look to 2015. Given a modest recovery in global growth in 2015E, credit demand is expected to remain sluggish while the margin outlook is likely to be mixed, reflecting diverging policy rate trends. We expect to see good cost control as banks strive for greater efficiency while overall asset quality should remain stable albeit picking up in emerging markets. While earnings momentum has been negative this year, we think current valuations are fair, with the sector trading on 10.1x PE and 1.0x PBV versus a sector ROE of 12.4%, on our 2015 estimates.

trojanhorse

World economy 29th November 2014

Keynesians Trojan horse a sign of changing times at OECD

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The OECD´s economic outlook showed that voices calling for action in Europe are growing louder. With the outcomes of austerity and budgetary consolidation continuing to drag down the economy, Catherine L Mann´s arrival as its chief economist represents a significant coup for advocates of the opposite recipe.