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World economy 27th November 2014

A hundred-year stagnation? For who?

By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a necessary objective. Anyone who travels in the Far East finds confirmation of the desperate lack of efficient networks. With the exception of Japan and other developed economies, countries see their ambitions reduced by chronic underdevelopment. How can we forcefully industrialize agrarian countries if the goods produced are not transported on paved roads, via trucks, for eventual export?
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In Europe 26th November 2014

“European leaders need to act”, says OECD’s Head of EU and Eurozone

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a bleak outlook for Europe unless action is taken. The Corner asked Piritta Sorsa, Head of EU and Eurozone surveillance at the OECD about the increased sense of urgency, sovereign bond proposals and the necessity for consensus among Eurozone members.

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Markets 26th November 2014

ECB’s bond buying unlikely to bring growth

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Up to now, all devices planned by the ECB to reverse the dismal situation have utterly failed. The medium-term financing facility has gathered little enthusiasm from the banking community. Covered bonds and ABS have proved to be blunders, their turnover limited to a meagre €20 billion per month. This heralded bazooka has petered out well short of its target. Banks are pressing for a widening of eligibility, hoping to transfer bad assets to the central bank. Others suggest a sweeping corporate bond buying thrust that would only benefit big enterprises, thereby introducing further distortions. Short of ammunition, the ECB has just one final weapon to curb the dwindling performance of the economy: sovereign bond acquisitions. 

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World economy 24th November 2014

PBoC delivered asymmetric rate cuts, what’s next?

By Jian Chang (Barclays) | The PBoC announced after the market close on Friday it was lowering the benchmark interest rates, effective 22 November 2014. The cut will be asymmetric, with the 1y lending rate down by 40bp to 5.6% and the 1y deposit rate down by 25bp to 2.75% (Figures 1 and 2). Meanwhile, the central bank further advanced its interest rate liberalization agenda. Banks can offer deposit rates at 20% above the benchmark rate, up from 10% currently (the upward flexibility was first introduced in June 2012, also along with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate). The bank also removed the benchmark guidance for the 5y savings rate.

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In Europe 21st November 2014

Spain and Portugal are the Eurozone countries at most risk of “prolonged low inflation”

MADRID | The Corner | Internal demand is recovering within the euro area, activity is getting back on track and experts believe that companies are about to start investing, hiring more workers and boosting consumption. However, credit flow, the production gap and unemployment are still major challenges. Analysts at Cortal Consors think that Spain and Portugal are the Eurozone countries most at risk of a “prolonged period of low inflation or mild deflation.”

britain eu

In Europe 19th November 2014

The EU is a union of rules, not a union of force

The European Union (EU) is a group of sovereign states, who are sovereign in that they are entirely free to leave the EU. This freedom to leave means the EU is not a “super state.” There is no coercive force — and no EU army — to make Britain or any other country remain in the union. Britain enjoys a freedom, within the EU, that colonies did not enjoy within the British or other European empires. Britain is, therefore, entirely within its rights in considering the option of leaving the EU, although that does not mean such a course would be wise.

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In Europe 18th November 2014

Crush the Greeks!

ATHENS | By Yanis Varoufakis via Truman | Tim Geithner is now on the public record, confirming that which we have always known: In February 2010, clueless as to the Euro Crisis that was about to engulf them, Northern European leaders decided to crush Greece. Collectively to punish (against even the Geneva Convention) a nation for having gone bankrupt within a Eurozone whose architecture never took into consideration the possibility that a member-state could become insolvent.

china landing

World economy 15th November 2014

China: How a soft landing feels

BEIJING | By Michael Gavin (Barclays) | There are many reasons to be interested in the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here, we focus on the potential implications for advanced manufacturing economies. They are not the ones with the most to lose in a slowdown; that distinction very likely belongs to commodity exporters. But China’s systemic significance is such that no economy is likely to remain utterly unscathed by a cyclical event there. The question is how scathed major economies will be, and the answer is of some considerable interest for investors, if only because they comprise such a large share of the world’s financial assets.