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World economy 20th February 2014

European Hunger Games: The Threat of Importing Deflation From Emerging Markets

By David Denton via The Richter Scale | For anyone who was growing up in the 1970s there is a short list of things that one has to be concerned about: The music of The Bay City Rollers, the instant pudding – “angel delight”, playing rugby against the Welsh and inflation. Although the oil price shocks affected all industrialised economies inflation had a particularly severe impact on the UK, we quickly became known as the sick man of Europe.

World economy 14th January 2014

Is deflation a trap? Revisiting the Japanese experience

LONDON | By Michael Gavin at Barclays | The recent decline of headline and core inflation in the US and Europe has intensified interest in the economics of deflation, particularly the perceived danger that Europe may be headed for a deflationary episode. Deflation is particularly unsettling for many policymakers and market participants because of the theoretical risk that it may render monetary policy ineffective, creating a ‘liquidity trap’ from which it may be very difficult to escape.

World economy 28th November 2013

Are we heading for deflation?

MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | Prices like the weather inescapably lead to widespread demurral. They always look either overly hot or unduly cold. Yet the current debate on potential deflation seems largely shrugged off in Spain, even confronted with a CPI dwelling in minus territory. A predictable reaction in a country that scores a solid record of relentless price hikes.

In Europe 22nd November 2013

ECB: Preserving a safety margin against deflationary risk

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Under our macroeconomic scenario of a mild and uneven recovery combined with subdued inflation, we do not expect the ECB to cut rates further in the coming months despite recent speculation (Bloomberg news) that it was considering a negative deposit rate.

Companies, Relevant News Item 3rd December 2025

Inditex: Impressive Q3 results and very healthy start to Q4

Jefferies | Impressive Q3 results… with group sales/EBIT of €9.81bn/€2.37bn (cons €9.71bn/€2.25bn) for Aug-Sep, this for ex fx growth of +8.4% (versus cons of +7.8% and buyside apparently somewhere between 7% and 8%) which follows the 9% of current trading disclosed for 1-Aug to 8-Sep. Gross margin landed at +79bps year-on-year to 62.2%, versus cons/JEFe of +8bps/+55bps. EBIT margin progress was good (in light of fx sales dilution of -3.5%…

Companies, Relevant News Item 26th November 2025

Acerinox: EC plans to strengthen trade protection point to shift towards industrial policy more favourable to steel

Deutsche Bank | In recent years, steel stocks have been affected by weak demand, import pressure and political headwinds, and although fiscal spending and interest rates could provide support, we remain cautious on demand. However, the European Commission’s (EC) plans to significantly strengthen trade protection point to a significant shift towards a more steel-friendly industrial policy. If these measures are implemented, even partially, steelmakers are likely to return to an…

In the World 31st October 2025

Manufacturing activity in China loses momentum in October, lowest level in seven months, due to tariffs

Bankinter | Manufacturing activity falls more than expected in October in China. Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 points versus 49.6 expected and 49.8 previously; Services PMI 50.1 versus 50.0 expected and Composite PMI 50.0 versus 50.6 previously. Analysis team’s view: Weak figures. Manufacturing activity lost momentum in October and entered contraction territory (<50 points). This is the lowest figure in the last seven months and reflects that the impact of tariffs is…

The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

In the World 13th March 2025

China’s “Lianghui” points to leadership determination to rebuff Trump’s actions

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s most important annual gathering, the so-called Lianghui(两会) will ended on March 11 after over a week of meetings by the legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC), but also the most important consultative body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). One of the key objectives of these “Two Sessions”, as they are generally referred to in English, was to offer the key economic…

In the World 11th March 2025

China’s CPI continues to show economy’s weakness, falling back into negative territory

Bankinter | Price indicators continue to show the weakness of the Chinese economy. (i) CPI (February): down 0.7% year-on-year versus 0.4% expected versus up 0.5% previous. Core rate: down 0.1% year-on-year versus up 0.6% previous; (ii) Industrial Prices (February): down 2.2% year-on-year versus 2.1% expected versus 2.3% previous. Bankinter analysis team’ view: More negative news for the Chinese economy. Inflation has fallen back into negative territory (for the first time…

In the World 7th March 2025

China sets growth target for 2025 at 5%, with budget deficit rising to 4% from 3% in 2024

Banca March | China sets growth target for 2025 at 5%, with budget deficit rising to 4% (from 3% in 2024). The The government document presented by Prime Minister Li Qiang to parliament sets the GDP target at 5% for the third consecutive year, a demanding goal that will require more aggressive stimulus measures. The focus is on strengthening consumption and counteracting deflationary pressures – the government has lowered its…

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