Bankinter | Manufacturing activity falls more than expected in October in China. Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 points versus 49.6 expected and 49.8 previously; Services PMI 50.1 versus 50.0 expected and Composite PMI 50.0 versus 50.6 previously. Analysis team’s view: Weak figures. Manufacturing activity lost momentum in October and entered contraction territory (<50 points). This is the lowest figure in the last seven months and reflects that the impact of tariffs is…

Bankinter | Price indicators continue to show the weakness of the Chinese economy. (i) CPI (February): down 0.7% year-on-year versus 0.4% expected versus up 0.5% previous. Core rate: down 0.1% year-on-year versus up 0.6% previous; (ii) Industrial Prices (February): down 2.2% year-on-year versus 2.1% expected versus 2.3% previous. Bankinter analysis team’ view: More negative news for the Chinese economy. Inflation has fallen back into negative territory (for the first time…

Bankinter | China’s inflation data remained unchanged in December and CPI ended at 0.1%, in line with expectations. The Underlying Rate rises one tenth of a percentage point to 0.4% year-on-year. Producer prices closed at 2.3% down year-on-year, slightly better than the 2.4% expected versus 2.5% previously. Analysis team’s view: Inflation continues to weaken and to approach 0% and to reach the lowest since March 2024, while Industrial Prices remain…

Norbolsa | New stimulus measures to counteract the weakness of the PMIs. The central bank set the date of early October to cut rates on existing mortgage loans by an average of 50 bps. The market reacted with strong rallies to the news, and buying piled up ahead of the ‘Golden Week’ holiday period that China is celebrating this week. The disappointing PMI data for September, which did not reflect…

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The market is closely watching the long-awaited Third Plenum in China, which will be hosted from July 15 to July 18 in 2024. Historically, this event has been pivotal in signaling key policy shifts and economic reforms in China. This time around, market participants and China watchers have a very specific question: will measures be announced for the Chinese economy to revive after years of…