Charlie Sunnucks (Jupiter AM) | China has shown that the virus can be contained if stringent government measures are put in place, and while the economic shock is considerable, it is also acute, with the shutdown centered on weeks rather than months. The key question is how long it will take for daily activity to normalize.
Investors worldwide are trembling at the epidemic that is currently crippling China. With good reason? This is a guest commentary by Frank Sieren. The best-selling author has lived in Beijing since 1994 and reports exclusively from China for Flossbach von Storch AG.
Yesterday, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s published a report where it calculates that China’s coronavirus crisis will subtract one or two tenths off economic growth, both in the Eurozone and in the UK, in 2020. This is due to the impact on exports to China and on business investment. In Spain’s case, the figure may be excessive. This is because the impact on imports from China must also be taken into account and will work in Spain’s favour.
By Kevin Flanagan, (Head of Fixed Income Strategy, WisdomTree) / This year has got off to an unusual start in the financial markets. Typically, the focus would be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and/or economic developments, but unfortunately the coronavirus has taken centre stage. I thought it would be useful to offer some insights from a bond market perspective, using the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of November 2002 to July 2003 as a comparative event.____¨
The People’s Bank of China pumps 1.2tn yuan into the financial system to protect the economy from the coronavirus Global stocks extended their rally last week despite concerns that the coronavirus will slow global growth. Experts at Julius Baer continue to argue that stocks are susceptible to a short-term correction and consider any weakness as an entry opportunity for long-term investors.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Policymakers in China made a credible move in their attempt to regain control over the current situation. After injecting liquidity into financial markets, they announced the potential for a cure/vaccination available soon and later cut some tariffs on US imports. Fear-stricken markets took a sigh of relief.
The world has changed a lot because China has changed a lot. China’s share of global GDP has risen from a negligible 2% in 1990 to 15.9%. Meanwhile, the other powers have fallen in that period: Japan, from 14 to 5.8%; Europe, from 35% to 21.9%; and the USA, from 27% to 23.9%, according to Weltbank data. So hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany are now dependent on China. And all over the world, because China today accounts for 1/3 of world growth.
Alphavalue | The magnitude of the downward revisions to the sectors should not come as a big surprise. In a very negative case (“worst case scenario”), the luxury sector could lose 34% and may come as an unpleasant surprise. The Stoxx600 would drop by 15% if fundamentals are threatened again. Although they were not a problem 10 days ago, it seems that sensitivity has increased now.
Most economists were probably expecting a fairly easy ride at the beginning of 2020. However, unforeseen exogenous events such as the outbreak of China coronavirus are standing in the way, generating a high level of uncertainty. In the opinion of Gilles Moëc , Chief Economist at AXA IM, that now ” economic policy could be on autopilot is not very consensual”.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Investors seeking protections may consider stocks in the healthcare and internet space, which are less exposed. However, more importantly, the recent outbreak does not change our medium- and long-term constructive view on Chinese equities. We are inclined to buy on weakness in the equity market at this stage.