Welcome to the New Normal in China
BEIJING | By Xiu Gao via Caixin | The annual Central Economic Work Conference report sketches a framework for looser monetary policies and adjustments to slower economic growth in China.
China
Retail traditions hit a wall at Wal-Mart China
BEIJING | By Li Xuena via Caixin | Zhong Shidan started climbing the Wal-Mart career ladder 18 years ago after she joined the U.S. retail giant’s Shenzhen outlet as a shop assistant. Today, Zhong holds a high-level operations department position and oversees the company’s more than 80,000 employees in China. She goes by the English name Grace and works hard to reflect well on Wal-Mart as an executive who is persistent, smart and focused.
The new ‘growth package’ from the EU
By Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | Last week, China’s biggest export destination, the European Union established a new growth package. The desired size of a new investment fund is 315 billion euros, and it will be called the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI). During a period of three years, new investments financed by the fund are expected to lift annual GDP growth in the EU by 0.7 percentage points. The calculations from the EU show that the package can create between 1 million and 1.3 million new jobs.
New investor bridge in China showcases opportunity –but also lingering concerns
The launch of the Hong Kong – Shanghai Stock Connect gives foreign investors unprecedented access to the Chinese stock market by simply opening an account in Hong Kong. While the new scheme provides undoubted opportunity, systemic flaws in China continue to cause concern.
A hundred-year stagnation? For who?
By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a necessary objective. Anyone who travels in the Far East finds confirmation of the desperate lack of efficient networks. With the exception of Japan and other developed economies, countries see their ambitions reduced by chronic underdevelopment. How can we forcefully industrialize agrarian countries if the goods produced are not transported on paved roads, via trucks, for eventual export?
PBoC delivered asymmetric rate cuts, what’s next?
By Jian Chang (Barclays) | The PBoC announced after the market close on Friday it was lowering the benchmark interest rates, effective 22 November 2014. The cut will be asymmetric, with the 1y lending rate down by 40bp to 5.6% and the 1y deposit rate down by 25bp to 2.75% (Figures 1 and 2). Meanwhile, the central bank further advanced its interest rate liberalization agenda. Banks can offer deposit rates at 20% above the benchmark rate, up from 10% currently (the upward flexibility was first introduced in June 2012, also along with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate). The bank also removed the benchmark guidance for the 5y savings rate.
A tale of US rebalancing, a looming liquidity crisis and the yuan’s arrival
By Miriam L. Campanella via Caixin | The supply of U.S. dollars in the global economy is set to shrink, and the yuan could fill the void if Chinese leaders and international monetary institutions are prepared to act
China-U.S. Investment Treaty Would Strengthen Economic Relations
BEIJING | By Sean Miner via Caixin | The United States and China disagree on many issues but especially in the foreign policy sphere, and there are few reasons the two economic heavyweights will become closer in the next few years. Among the few areas that could bring them closer could be increased bilateral investment. With the recent “breakthrough” between China and the United States in the negotiations on the Information Technology Agreement, the prospects for a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between them have been improved.
China: How a soft landing feels
BEIJING | By Michael Gavin (Barclays) | There are many reasons to be interested in the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here, we focus on the potential implications for advanced manufacturing economies. They are not the ones with the most to lose in a slowdown; that distinction very likely belongs to commodity exporters. But China’s systemic significance is such that no economy is likely to remain utterly unscathed by a cyclical event there. The question is how scathed major economies will be, and the answer is of some considerable interest for investors, if only because they comprise such a large share of the world’s financial assets.
Is China regressing to the mean?
By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | A view that Chinese growth must slow because of experiences elsewhere may be ignoring the country’s uniqueness and technological advances.