Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | As the world awaits the return of Chinese tourists, a long-standing question may reemerge. China has gradually opened its capital account over the past decade, but there are still considerable restrictions. As a result, tourism has become one of the channels for capital flights based on the difference between the balance of payment data in China and globally. But there is a major problem with…

Bankinter : Inflation rebounded three tenths to +2.1% in January (in line with expectations), but the fall in producer prices gained inertia (-0.8% vs -0.5% expected vs -0.7% previously). Analysis: The rebound in inflation is explained by the rise in food prices (+6.2% vs +4.8% previously) and the increase in demand, especially in leisure-related products and services after the lunar year. The decline in producer prices is good news because…

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The grand comeback in Asia is taking shape, but there is one missing piece. Although China, the world’s largest international travel spender, is still on its recovery path, it will eventually return to global prominence. Before the COVID pandemic, Chinese tourists had become an integral part of the global tourism sector with their spending share rising from 8% in 2010 to 16% in 2019. The…

Alicia Garcia Herrero & Jianwei Xu (Natixis) | Chinese economy ended 2022 by growing only 3% YoY, with the last quarter GDP slowing further to 2.9% YoY. The figure was finally much lower than the target set during the Two Sessions by the Chinese government mainly because of the heavy mobility restrictions imposed under zero-Covid policies since the Shanghai lockdown. The slowdown in Q4 was particularly reflected in the decelerating consumption…

Bankinter| China’s December Trade Balance records a surplus of +$78B vs +$76.9B estimated and +$69.84B previous. Exports decelerate -9.9% vs -11.1% estimated and -8.7% previous. Imports also, but less: -7.5% vs -10% estimated and -10.6% previous. Opinion: The trade surplus widens, which is good news, but it is due to lower imports (a symptom of weak domestic demand) and not to a rise in exports. In fact, exports are falling,…

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Uncertainty about China’s growth prospects next year is unprecedently high. Most importantly such uncertainty hinges more than ever on a single issue: the speed – and smoothness – of China’s opening-up from zero-Covid policies after three years of intermittent lockdowns. The speed of opening-up is key because mobility is closely correlated with China’s consumption and economic activity, more generally. In fact, we have estimated that, in…

Nicholas Yeo (abrdn) | The world’s biggest annual shopping event is not America’s Black Friday, it’s China’s ‘Singles Day’, held on 11.11, as the date symbolises both those who are single and those who have newly formed a couple. Across the country, people treat themselves and each other to presents, parties and shopping splurges. The unstoppable rise of the Chinese consumer means the celebration has become the world’s largest online…