David Kohl (Chief Economist Germany, Julius Baer) | Lower new infection rates in Europe and a swifter recovery of activity are valid reasons to scale back some pessimism regarding the eurozone growth outlook. The eurozone has ramped up its fiscal response to the corona pandemic. We feel comfortable in expecting for the region a more moderate contraction of -7.2% in 2020.
Scope Ratings | The appointment of a new prime minister and a shift towards greening the economy could help to restore political integration across government levels over the medium term but reviving the economy remains the key near-term priority. Emmanuelle Macron is facing the multi-faceted challenges of reviving the economy, addressing the climate imperative and resetting his presidency amid declining approval ratings.
James Reilly (Schroeders)| The current coronavirus crisis appears to be a rather potent cocktail of all three of these events: a viral epidemic more widespread than SARS, an economic downturn sharper than the GFC, and a fear of flying comparable to the aftermath of 9/11. This points to a trough far greater than the 45% downturn in international travel seen nine months into the GFC.
Janwillem Acket (Chief Economist, Julius Baer) | Even though the June figure of overall non-farm job creation in the US (to which all the major segments of the economy contributed) is a historical high since the records started in 1939, there are bitter aftertastes. In fact, continued jobless claims until 20 June, i.e. during the period of data collection for the non-farm jobs, actually rose to 19.29 M, from 19.231 M a week earlier, and the four-week average until 27 June was still at 1.504 M, only slightly down from 1.621 in the previous week.
The market capitalisation of Spain’s six leading banks has slumped by approximately 53.11 billion euros. All the lenders recorded declines in their share prices, which ranged from 39.3% for CaixaBank to 54.9% for Banco Sabadell. The combined market capitalization of the six banks at the end of the first half was 76.398 billion euros, compared to 129.509 billion end-2019.
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | “After months of the greenback rallying on bad news as investors sought safe havens, it seems like the uniquely bad domestic COVID-19 situation has finally caught up with the US dollar. It is the end of the quarter, but today’s price action nonetheless has a feel of the dollar’s chickens coming home to roost.
Gary Buswell | Conspiracy theories seem to be a staple of major global events, so it’s no surprise that COVID-19 has become the biggest hotbed for unfounded “alternative narratives” since 9/11. Various theories are circulating across social media, sucking in a worrying number of high-profile public figures who seem willing to share disinformation without checking the facts, even though these narratives have little basis in reality and are not supported by any credible experts or academics.
Bankinter | The rating agency justifies its decision on financial and external resilience, strong GDP growth in recent years and structural reforms. It also considers that the recent deficit reduction gives some confidence that, once the COVID-19 crisis is overcome, public debt will maintain a downward trend. It estimates GDP will see a decline of 9.6% this year and will grow 4.4% in 2021.
Inditex has published results for its first fiscal quarter (February-April), reflecting as expected the strong impact of the coronavirus: historical losses of €409 million, positive EBITDA although 78% lower than in Q1’19, and a 44% drop in revenues. Nevertheless, the company confirmed the payment of a dividend against 2019 results of 0.35 euros/share, 60% less than a year earlier.
Saurabh Jha via Fair Observer| When the COVID-19 pandemic is dissected in the 2020 presidential election debates, Donald Trump will be at a disadvantage. The coronavirus has killed over 100,000 Americans and maimed thousands more. The caveat is that deaths per capita, rather than total deaths, better measure national failure, and by that metric the US fares better than Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom.