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Coronavirus

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In Europe 28th May 2020

Italy And Spain, The Countries To Benefit Most From The Recovery Fund: €172.8 Bn And €140 Bn, Respectively, Between Transfers And Loans

The Recovery Fund exceeds the Merkel/Macron proposals with an amount of €750 billion euros (equivalent to 5.4% of the EU27’s annual GDP). Italy and Spain would be the countries to most benefit. This was something that was quickly reflected in the performance of peripheral credit on Wednesday, especially in the financial sector, with improvements on average of about 10bp in the CDS of banks in both countries. For its part, France and Germany will receive transfers of 39 Bn and 29 Bn, respectively.

Holland tunnel entrance at NY

World economy 11th May 2020

Infrastructure Spend a Key for Pandemic Recovery

Anthony Pettinari (Citi GPS) | While we can’t rule out that funding for infrastructure will be included in a new package, it looks far more likely that any package that can be agreed on by the Administrationand Congress will include more money for small businesses, the unemployed, hospitals/health care, and possibly State/Local governments. The good news though is that we expect a post-election comprehensive infrastructure bill that could help propel beaten down state and local economies.

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World economy 10th May 2020

US Stocks To Be Relative Winners In A Post-Covid-19 World

Patrik Lang, Head Equities (Julius Baer) | We have downgraded eurozone equities to Underweight given slower earnings recovery expectations, increasing political risk and unfavourable sector exposure. In our view, relative valuations do not fully reflect these negatives. On the other hand, we have upgraded US equities, which should benefit from a relatively fast post-Covid-19 recovery.

Ian Bremmer

Interviews 6th May 2020

Coronavirus: “The Loser, For The Moment, Is The West” Says Ian Bremmer

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | We don’t know yet what will happen but, for the moment, it is clear that the fact that China has apparently been able to contain the pandemic better than the US or much of the EU will considerably strengthen that country’s political appeal and capacity for influence. The loser, for the moment, is the West. The economic damage was inevitable. But the political damage, for example in the US, due to the lack of preparation and the scant attention paid to experts, could have been much less…

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Spanish economy 27th April 2020

Spain: When The Government Claims To Be A Victim

Alicia Arce | Enlightenment is the human being’s emergence from his self-incurred minority, said Kant and that produced an active subject who is responsible, who takes charge of their life, their acts, their share of the world; with their many achievements and their terrible atrocities.

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Spanish economy 27th April 2020

Historic Drop In The Oil Price: How Will It Affect The Spanish Economy?

Caixabank Research | A fall in the price of oil provides a boost to the economy of countries that are net importers of crude oil, as is the case for Spain. Cheaper oil equates to an increase in the real disposable income of households, such that it also supports aggregate consumption. However, the health crisis that has gripped us following the COVID-19 outbreak will result in this boost derived from a lower oil price not being reflected in the economy, at least for the time being.

Repsol

Ibex, Markets 23rd April 2020

Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Also Buys Shares in Repsol Amid The Crisis

The increase in WTI to $15.1/barrel and Brent to $22.22/barrel has boosted Repsol’s shares, which were trading today 2.06% higher. Despite this small respite, the Spanish oil firm has not been able to escape the latest moves of the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund and is amongst the big European oil companies included in a list of stock market forays on the part of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) over the last few weeks, reported Financial Times.

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Markets, Spanish Small & Mid Caps 23rd April 2020

Gestamp’s Plants in China Move Towards Normality

The company has been progressively closing factories worldwide since mid-March. Europe was first, followed by America, but now it expects a gradual re-opening in the coming weeks. The only exception is China, where there has already been some opening up. Gestamp has 11 plants, two R&D centres in China, representing less than 10% of the 112 production plants that it has globally. They hope that activity will return to normal more or less imminently in the rest of its factories.

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Spanish economy 14th April 2020

Inditex Postpones Temporary Layoffs; Will Continue To Support All Staff Remuneration With Its Own Resources

Inditex has decided to postpone its temporary layoffs’ plan, which was expected to start on 15 April. For the time being, it will continue paying the salaries of its workers in Spain. After the state of alarm was decreed on 14 March and just after presenting its results, Inditex already flagged that it was going to cover the cost of all its staff in Spain. At the same time, it conditioned the temporary layoffs for its 25,000 store employees to the extension of the decree beyond 15 April, a measure which is now ruled out.