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MAS greece

In Europe 22nd January 2015

What next Greece?

By Gabriel Sterne via MacroPolis | It is easier to write down big questions on Greece’s future; harder to answer them: (1)   Will Syriza win with an overall majority?; (2)   Will a new programme be agreed in time?; (3)   To what extent will it stay on track?; (4)   How much additional debt relief and financing will the Troika give to Greece, and in what circumstances?; (5)   If and when the wheels come off the programme, is an exit inevitable? Would it be managed or chaotic? One thing we can be sure about though. The scene is set for a political showdown, the likes of which the Euro-crisis has not yet seen.

britain eu

In Europe 19th November 2014

The EU is a union of rules, not a union of force

The European Union (EU) is a group of sovereign states, who are sovereign in that they are entirely free to leave the EU. This freedom to leave means the EU is not a “super state.” There is no coercive force — and no EU army — to make Britain or any other country remain in the union. Britain enjoys a freedom, within the EU, that colonies did not enjoy within the British or other European empires. Britain is, therefore, entirely within its rights in considering the option of leaving the EU, although that does not mean such a course would be wise.

tightening greek belt austerity financial crisis

In Europe 12th November 2014

The politics of debt dynamics in Greece

ATHENS |  By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The reprofiling of Greece’s sovereign obligations makes any future debt restructuring an exercise that would almost entirely impact the official sector of Greece’s international creditors. Among these creditors, European institutions such as the ECB, the EFSF and eurozone member states would be affected most prominently.

 

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Markets 1st October 2014

Greek debt viable, no haircut needed

MADRID | The Corner | As Greece and its euro-area creditors meet on Thursday to review its progress ahead of another round of talks on repayment terms for its public deb, the worst for Athens seems to be over. The Mediterranean country doesn’t need a haircut, its debt is sustainable, as head of the EFSF ESM Klaus Regling commented in Brussels on Tuesday. However, and despite the profound, painful reforms the country has been through, recovery is hampered by private debt of households and companies: about 164 billion euros ($208 billion), 90% of GDP.

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Spanish economy 22nd August 2014

Spanish Treasury bills trading at negative rates for the first time in history

MADRID | The Corner | Although the eurozone economy in August has become the main focus of investors’ concern, peripheral debt continues to attract them. Yesterday, for the first time in history, the Spanish Treasury 3-months bills traded at negative rates on the secondary market. To date, the Treasury has covered 70% of the expected gross issuance in 2014 of 242,370 million euros, which means a decrease in the average cost of outstanding debt of 14 basis points since December 2013 to stand at 3.59% . However, the Treasury decided yesterday to cancel the auction of bonds and notes scheduled owing to the absence of investors because of the summer season.

argentina

World economy 31st July 2014

Argentina: Griesa’s ruling sets dangerous precedent in debt restructuring processes

MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).

 

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In Europe 17th July 2014

Greece ponders how to deal with rising unpaid private debt, which hit 88 pct of GDP

ATHENS | Via Macropolis | Unpaid private debt in Greece is estimated to have reached around 160 billion euros, which corresponds to 88 percent of GDP, but was largely ignored until the last few days, when it became a key issue in the discussion between the government and the troika. Apart from the outstanding amount, the dynamic, which clearly shows a steady upward trend, is also a worrying factor.

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Spanish economy 16th July 2014

Defaults on instalment purchases fall by 25.2% in Spain

MADRID | By The Corner | The number of trade assets obtained on deferred terms and returned unpaid by households and companies plummeted by 25.2% in May, according to Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE). Thus, defaulting in commerce puts together 25 months of year-on-year drops.

General government gross debt by sector of debt holder

In Europe 3rd July 2014

No matter what, non-residents bet on French debt

MADRID | The Corner | While  markets are expressing their concerns about the French economy, institutional investors seem quite comfortable about the Hexagone’s situation: the debt share of non-residents is 57.3 %, according to Eurostat. Finland and Latvia are the top choices with 81.6 % and 80.0 % of their debt owned by non-residents. Check the graph above.