Madrid| JP Marin-Arrese| There is little chance that the Eurogroup will broker a way out of the Greek conundrum later today. As time runs out in the nail-biting tussle between Greece and its creditors, investors may start to lose their nerve. Even if they gauge that a potential Grexit would bring about limited damage for other partners, no one can exclude the possibility of turmoil erupting in the markets.
MADRID| Sean Duffy | Nobody knows how the Greece debt negotiations will turn out, but aren´t we all getting a little tired of the saga?
MADRID | JP Marín Arrese | The markets have shown utter dismay at the dim prospects of the euro zone striking a deal that would cut short uncertainties over the current Greek imbroglio. Tsipras seems ready to fight until the very end in a bid to undermine his European partners. As the Brussels bureaucracy works feverishly to broker an honourable truce, Tsipras appears increasingly reluctant to offer anything short of unconditional surrender. His blunt refusal of any rescue linked to the current conditions is eroding confidence in the Greek government’s political wisdom, its brand of refined brinkmanship seems unlikely to bring Athens to a less intractable stance. A devastating crisis may loom ahead should the sides fail to yield ground in the current tug-of-war.
By Marios Zachariadis via MacroPolis | At first glance, the potentially catastrophic consequences of Grexit on the rest of the Eurozone provide the Greek government with an important bargaining chip. However, the Greek government should take into consideration that Grexit is not the only possible alternative in case an agreement with the rest of the EZ cannot be reached soon.
MADRDD | Sean Duffy | Markets are likely to remain volatile in the week ahead as investors await indication on Greek standoff.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Thursday brought some positive predictions on the Spanish economy from the European Commission, but buoyancy on European markets may be negated by data due from the US later today.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Tsipras rebellion was ruthlessly quelled by the ECB governing board last night. Neither Greek sovereigns, nor publicly-guaranteed bond issues, will stand as eligible collateral for funding facilities, thus plunging the financial system into a crippling credit-crunch. The emergency liquidity arrangement managed by the local central bank severely caps new public financing to a meagre €3.5 billion amount. The new government faces the unpalatable choice between surrender or bankruptcy.
MADRID | The Corner | Despite the markets’ first negative reaction to the ECB’s restricting Greece access to its direct liquidity lines, Morgan Stanley analysts reminded on Thursday that nobody should be that surprised: in 2012, one third of the Greek balance sheets were financed by the ECB, and most via ELA. Plus, Greek banks can still get ECB liquidity if they use ECB eligible collateral.
By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The parliamentary majority achieved by the SYRIZA-led coalition government following the 25 January elections constitutes a strong political mandate in mathematical terms. Among one of the many immediate challenges facing the new administration is trying to translate its numerical advantage into a majority of support among Greek citizens, including those who did not vote for the senior coalition party.
LONDON | Sigrún Davíðsdóttir | Forget economics, politics is key to understanding the Eurozone. The cries of “Grexit” lately have mostly been a repetition of an earlier discourse: in February 2012 Citi’s economists Willem Buiters and Ebrahim Rahbari coined the term “Grexit,” by July 2012 estimating its likelihood to 90%. Cheered on by the media, economists have taken over the debate of the Eurozone which is why much of it has been such a futile exercise: it is not economics, which ties the Eurozone together but the political determination of its leaders to make the euro work. With political will likelihood of any exit is 0. Ergo, Grexit is as unlikely now as it has always been in spite of the EU brinkmanship. One route Greece seems to be exploring is a tried and tested one: the “bisque clause” from 1946.