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World economy 17th November 2014

Living well with a strong dollar

ZURICH | By UBS analysts | Will a strong dollar much weaken overall U.S. growth and inflation? The answer importantly depends on how much export and import prices respond to changes in the dollar’s foreign exchange value. Exporters may cut dollar prices and profit margins in order to blunt a stronger dollar’s impact on their market shares and volumes. In fact, over the three months through October, dollar prices of nonagricultural exports fell steadily (by a cumulative 1.3%).

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World economy 8th November 2014

Economic surprises explain (nearly) everything

By UBS Global Macro Team | Our proprietary surprise indices for growth and inflation are still enjoying very tight correlations with the prices of a wide range of global financial assets. The gyrations of our global and regional growth indices for instance closely track equity markets, both developed and emerging. Global growth surprises (excluding the US) closely track – and often lead – the US dollar and oil prices. Eurozone growth surprises closely track – and often lead – the euro. And global inflation surprises closely track the price of gold.

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Markets 25th October 2014

Ready for a strong dollar?

MADRID | The Corner | The dollar is set to rise, mostly as monetary policies of the Fed, ECB and BoJ are set to diverge dramatically, the greenback trend being intact and the cheap valuations, analysts at Barclays commented.

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World economy 23rd October 2014

Are we talking about deflation?

MADRID | The Corner | Which is the real origin of the deflationist pressure that the global economy is facing? A greater desire of saving money than investing at a global scale, experts at Morgan Stanley point out. The eurozone, Japan and the most stable emerging countries have a greater control over their domestic interest rates, whereas China, whose currency is pegged to the USD, will also import deflation -something Beijing won’t like. 

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Markets 7th October 2014

Dollar’s quick appreciation raises questions for markets

MADRID | By Francisco López | The strength of the dollar –which is in maximum levels and has appreciated by almost 11% against the euro since January 2014, has started to cast doubt among market watchers. Some experts consider that such strong appreciation does not correspond to Janet Yellen’s cautious decisions or to the low inflation expectations at a global level, which leaves room to central banks to maintain loose monetary policies. 

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Markets 25th July 2014

RMB as reserve: Rebalancing the global financial system

By Peter Wong via Caixin | It is unlikely that the RMB or yuan, China’s “people’s currency,” will replace the dollar outright as the world’s only investment and reserve currency any time in the foreseeable future. But there is every indication that the dollar will have to make room for a second global reserve currency within the next 15 years. A revolution allowing investors to diversify risk – and creating a system with more choice and better ability to resist shocks – should be welcomed.

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Markets 26th June 2014

Why All Currencies Are National

By Jean Pisani-Ferry via Caixin | Actions by America’s Justice Department launching a probe against BNP Paribas are a reminder that the major international currency – the U.S. dollar – brings with it legal, judicial and political dimensions. 

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Markets 8th May 2014

The pernicious effects of an overvalued euro

MADRID | By Francisco López | While Mr. Draghi simply says that the ECB “is closely following the evolution of the exchange rate due to its impact on the price stability,” other international bodies such as the IMF, the OECD, the European Commission and most of the Eurozone’s countries (with the exception of Germany and its allies) demand the banking authority to take immediate action.

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In Europe 4th November 2013

Before ECB’s meeting: Euro Losses Momentum To Possible Rate Cut

MADRID | By Francisco López | The market has changed their perception about the ECB’s monetary policy and it’s now anticipating a possible reduction of interest rates in the eurozone before end of the year or early 2014. The first consequence has been the depreciation of the euro, which has gone from 1.38 dollars, a two-year-maximum, to 1.35. The European currency suddenly depreciated, yet it still overvalued against the dollar.