Francisco Vidal | The emphasis put on the Federal Reserve’s actions and the US’ economy’s favourable performance over the last few years led to the debate over the possibility of the euro and the dollar reaching parity, which gained momentum at end-2016 and at the start of 2017. But the euro’s fundamentals are currently better than expected and, in the future, can count on the support of the ECB.
Maria Fernando Tapia Cortés | Donald Trump has already built barriers around his relationship with Mexico that are higher than any wall. The diplomatic slip in the form of a tweet that ended with President Enrique Peña Nieto canceling their meeting was apparently fixed after the phone call between the two presidents held on January 27, in which they agreed to not talk publicly of the wall and expressed their desire to keep cooperating on issues like security.
Reagan is a precedent for Trump as Krugman says. We can envisage what Trump’s early years will be like thanks to Reagan. And we could see a similar situation to what was known in the Reagan years as the twin deficits due to the size of the fiscal and external deficits.
We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.
Referenda stand as a dangerous gamble nowadays. Only the Swiss can manage them with relative ease. Populism can boast of triggering another staggering crisis in Europe as voters rejected by a wide majority the Constitutional reform tabled by the Italian PM. Opposition to his initiative also came from fellow members of the Democratic Party, such as D’Alema, and respected politicians like Monti. Conceding defeat, Mr Renzi has resigned from office throwing the country into utter disarray.
Julius Baer Research | The combination of a positive economic growth narrative, like the fiscal boost under President-elect Trump, and good economic data, creates a powerful positive US consensus. Self-limiting forces of a stronger US dollar and higher interest rates are slowly emerging.
Julius Baer Research| Thanks to significant fiscal support measures, China was able to keep its annual growth rate stable at 6.7% and even accelerate its quarterly expansion rate from 1.2% to 1.8% in Q2 2016. China has several options to manage the expected slowdown ahead: fiscal spending, interest-rate cuts and renminbi devaluation will be able to limit the cyclical risks ahead.
Zhong Zhengsheng | The yuan has depreciated further against the U.S. dollar recently, with the central parity rate on July 6 hitting the lowest level since November 2010, at 6.68 yuan for every dollar.
Marc Chandler via Caixin | The U.S. dollar has had a rough few months. It has fallen against most major and emerging market currencies this year. A critical issue for global investors and policymakers is whether the dollar’s uptrend is over or is this just a respite. Much is at stake with the answer.
UBS | The current global growth scare, which has recently focused on the US, has set off a train of events that, rather implausibly, is leading to modest outperformance by EM (v. DM) equities in down markets so far this year. We explain this very simply; worries over the US economy have pulled the dollar lower and have, for now, taken some, much – needed, currency pressure off EM equity markets.