ECB

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Italy or France will have to face deep structural reforms

MADRID | The Corner | Markets were sad on Monday until Mario Draghi emerged and spoke his magic words. It seems markets feel more secure every time the president of the ECB takes the lead and assures everything will be alright. Investors felt more confident after his intervention at the European Parliament’s Economic and Financial Committee. However, despite his speech regarding new potential actions in monetary policy, he also highlighted the need of deep structural reforms by the Members States. According to market watchers at Link Securities, sooner or later, “such reforms will have to be faced by Italy or France’s government, because it is necessary to make them competitive and able to grow again.”


ECB's upcoming tapering

QE fails to work in Europe

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese The inability to implement a common economic stance aimed at delivering growth and jobs in Europe is putting the onus on monetary policy. The ECB stands as the only hope for redressing a dismal state of affairs. Yet, such high expectations could prove ill-founded. While Draghi saved the Euro’s plight back in mid-2012, he now seems utterly helpless to prevent deflationary bouts looming on the EZ horizon. His quantitative easing (QE) plan, far from achieving its goal, has lost steam. Many observers have put the blame on the ECB’s reluctance to enlarge the asset basket it is currently buying, demanding fully fledged QE, which involves junior debt and sovereigns. Yet, the flaw might lie in Europe’s failure to fully profit from monetary easing.


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The ECB wait-and-see stance

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | The ECB Board only reached, on paper, the decision to keep unchanged its official rates. Yet, the statement issued as an introduction to the press conference clearly outlined, for the first time, both its policy stance and firm commitment to act should the economy markedly deteriorate. Draghi refrained from providing his personal views on sensitive issues, such as the scope of quantitative easing, sticking to the literal content of the agreed statement. No doubt, his communication strategy had come under fierce criticism from other members of the Board, utterly upset by his flamboyant style and contradictory messages.


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ECB endorses balance sheet target

MADRID | The Corner |  As expected, the ECB’s Governing Council left the policy rates and the ABSPP, CBPP3 and TLTRO programmes unchanged and expressed its endorsement for increasing the central bank’s balance sheet to its size at March 2012, that is, around €3Tr. Draghi explicitly pointed out that they would evaluate further measures in case that the current purchase programmes are not enough to expand the balance sheet or if the EZ inflation outlook worsens. With policy rates at the zero bound, pressure is mounting on the central bank to act.


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ECB: Draghi is bound to act

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Recent events underline the extent to which low confidence is running throughout Europe. The expected upsurge has petered out and investors are losing all faith in political leaders’ ability to redress the situation. As countries seem unable to agree on a joint strategy to foster growth, the onus to achieve this goal increasingly falls on the ECB. Thus, Draghi is bound to act today in order to curb the downward sentiment. Yet, unleashing his firepower over the last months has led nowhere, save for running short on ammunition.


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ECB has some Aces up its sleeve yet, but what about Draghi?

MADRID | The Corner | According to CMC Markets’ analysts, “none of this week’s data from Europe has done anything to persuade markets that the European Central Bank won’t ultimately be forced into taking further action to help boost economic growth in the euro area at some point in the next few months.” Be that as it may, the Governing Council of the ECB will meet on Thursday to keep on working on the EZ economic recovery. Experts at Link Securities say that there won’t be any new measures for the monetary policy, although they believe Mr Draghi will announce the possibility of taking new actions to boost growth.


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Spanish banks: Expectations get more complicated after eurozone’s slump

MADRID | By Francisco López | The Spanish banks performed well in the latest stress tests. All in all, they achieved acceptable results for the third quarter of 2014. The problem, say the experts, could arise in the  months ahead: the European Commission has drastically reduced its forecasts for the  eurozone’s main economies,and as everybody knows, growth is essential for  banking activity.


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Silent whispers: Do murmurings of disaffection within ECB point to mounting obstacles for Draghi?

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Was Mario Draghi reckless to announce an ECB balance sheet expansion target? According to Reuters, some of his colleagues at the central bank are particularly aggrieved about a perceived “ secretive management style and erratic communication” and they will apparently  “urge him to act more collegially”. Could this leak be the beginning of a larger problem for the ECB chief? The bank was unwilling to comment on Wednesday.


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Daniele Nouy: “We are ready to assume EU banking supervision”

BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | The head of the ECB’s financial watchdog, Daniele Nouy, asserted her belief before EU legislators that entities will arise stronger in the near future. Moreover, on the eve of the Single Supervisory Mechanism taking control of financial supervision, the French official expects that most of the capital shortfall will be filled by an influx of fresh private money.


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And the ECB grabbed the mike

LONDON | Barclays analysts | Central banks will remain in the spotlight this week, with banks in Europe, UK, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Poland and the Czech Republic all set to deliver policy decisions. Of these only the NBP in Poland is likely to move, cutting policy rates by 25bp, in our view. However, most attention will be on the ECB for any hints of future QE, as economic data remain a challenge.