emerging economies


Eastern Europe (including Turkey) is facing a recession (-1.9%) in 2022

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | After an uncertain start into 2022 due to a new wave of the pandemic, emerging market economies (EMEs) face new headwinds triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Growth in EMEs as a whole is forecast to decline from 6.9% in 2021 to 3.7% in 2022. The events in Ukraine come on top of other issues, such as supply chain bottlenecks renewed Covid infections in some…


Emerging Asia Is Recovering In The Second Half But With Widening Divergence As Indonesia And India Lag

Trinh D. Nguyen (Natixis) | Here comes the good news: emerging Asia is turning the corner and on its upward trajectory in terms of growth in H2 2020. But increasingly, the pace of recovery from the trough is much slower for some and faster for others, creating widening divergence in emerging Asia. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines to a lesser extent, have shown a rapid rebound from their trough, based on the latest June manufacturing data. Other indicators such as retail sales also confirm this. That said, Indonesia and India are still struggling as the recovery is more sluggish and in contractionary territory. Singapore and Thailand are also lagging but have more buffers to offset drag.

emerging economies

Dealing With Crises: How Have Emerging Economies Evolved?

Pablo Béjar | Having transitioned into a more complex global economy, today emerging and developing countries are less economically vulnerable than in the 1980s and 1990s. But how secure are these economies? How much less vulnerable quantitatively and more resilient are countries to macroeconomic crises that battered them over the last 35 years? More specifically, how has the probability of a currency and GDP crisis evolved during these last years?


Asia investment strategy for H2: impact of Brexit

Mark McFarland (UBP) | Brexit has had a cathartic effect which is likely to continue for a long time. Although Asia as a whole does not have very close links to the UK, the Asian markets are very sensitive to global growth, investment flows and interest rates in US dollars. What happens next in Europe will be crucial for Asia in the next few months.

asian markets

U.S and China put emerging markets to the test

BEIJING | Alberto Lebrón | When the Asian crisis began in 1997, there were some countries which thought they were unjustly treated. For example, South Korea. Today, nearly twenty years on, the same pattern is being repeated, although the principal actors involved are much better prepared than they were then. But, are the Asian countries ready to face a restrictive monetary cyle imposed by the U.S.?