A ‘Brexit’ Map for Sterling
UBS | A date for referendum is set and the pound is getting pounded. The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the UK announced that the referendum vote will take place on 23 June 2016.
Europe
Consumer spending in Spain outpaces eurozone
The figures issued by the Bank of Spain have confirmed what we could already see with the naked eye; namely that Spaniards are losing their fear of the future and spending again. After several years of austerity, the consumers in Spain have gradually loosened their purse strings over the past year. And to such an extent that consumer spending rose 3.1% in 2015, almost tripling the 1.2% registered a year earlier.
“The Idea That Oil Is In Scarce Supply No Longer Seems Valid”
Luis Carlos Croissier is a member of the board of Repsol, Spain’s biggest oil company. He recalls that proven global oil reserves are currently double the level they were in 1980. Croissier was also chairman of the CNMV, the stock exchange regulatory body, and responsible for the Spanish bourse’s “Big Bang”, at the end of 80’s. Before that time, he was Industry Minister in Spain’s Socialist party.
What To Make Of Divisions In The West
Marc Chandler via Caixin | Lenin and Kautsky once debated the future of imperialism. Kautsky saw a trend toward a global ruling class. Lenin argued that despite such tendencies, inter-imperialist rivalries would prevent the emergence of global ruling class. The so-called West was never as homogenous as the cold warriors pretended. There were asymmetrical perceptions of the threat posed by the Soviet Union until its dying days. Only now do the United States and Europe contemplate a free-trade pact.
Analysts bet on European bourses in 2016
Most analysts think that the European stock markets, and particularly the Spanish bourse, have taken an excessive beating over the last few sessions. Now fund managers are recommending to take advantage of the recent correction to buy into these markets. In their opinion, the recovery in activity in the euro area will be accompanied by an improvement in share prices in the coming months.
How the US Interest Rate Might Affect You
With all the talk of an imminent interest rate hike, there are likely to be winners and losers.
Summers warns Yellen against a rate hike
If it is true that we are in a “Secular Stagnation,” we may need alternative (Keynesian) policies.
Europe is finally delivering on earnings growth
LONDON | UBS analysts | Actual reported earnings are showing strong numbers; based on reported earnings so far Q2 is one of the strongest seasons in c. 5 years.
What if we were to see deflation?
ZURICH | UBS analysts | Our central case is that we will not have deflation in any country except for Spain in 2015. But we cannot rule out the possibility of deflation, so here we look at assets that may outperform during periods of deflation. Generally deflation is bad for equity which de-rates aggressively but the story is more nuanced because particular sectors and styles are affected quite differently.
ECJ: Green light to ECB’s bond purchase
LONDON | Barclays analysts | The European Court of Justice has already published its opinion about the Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT): the ECB’s anti-crisis plan was “necessary” and “in principle” is in line with EU law. This much awaited opinion will have important implications for any broad-based ECB government bond purchases (QE), which we think are likely to be announced next week.