LONDON | By Laurent Fransolet at Barclays | While the debate about the ECB policy options and the state of the euro economy continues, and euro area financial markets have been stuck in a tight range recently, some important monetary, activity and inflation data have been released in the past few days. Overall, they point to the recovery proceeding, in a low inflation environment, and the ECB staying on hold for now.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The shadow of deflation looming over the euro zone economy have seemingly gone away on Friday. The statistical office Eurostat anticipated an estimated 0.9% yearly inflation rate, two percentual points under last October registers. However, being afraid of deflation is not a nonsense because next banking recapitalisation points that credit is to tighten.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Everyday, more and more analysts warn about the risk of a “Japanization” of the Eurozone, and they even foresee the possibility to watch a long period of low growth in an environment of high indebtedness and reduction in prices. But, what exactly are those risks?
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Although Q3 GDP data for euro area countries indicated growth for the second consecutive quarter, thereby confirming the end of the recession after six quarters of GDP contraction, it also showed the recovery to be subdued, uneven, and fragile.
MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | The European Commission has undertaken a thorough review of national budgets following the sweeping powers conferred to it to ensure consistency across the Eurozone. When enacted, this move was heralded as breaking into new territory. Yet the opinions now delivered flatly fail to meet its ambitious goal.
ATHENS | By Jens Bastian via The Agora | Despite the successful recapitalisation process and continued restructuring of the Greek banking sector, the credit transmission mechanism towards the real economy remains severely impaired. [Above graph sources: The Agora and Bank of Greece yearly data.]
MADRID | By Francisco López | The market has changed their perception about the ECB’s monetary policy and it’s now anticipating a possible reduction of interest rates in the eurozone before end of the year or early 2014. The first consequence has been the depreciation of the euro, which has gone from 1.38 dollars, a two-year-maximum, to 1.35. The European currency suddenly depreciated, yet it still overvalued against the dollar.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Yanis Varoufakis is the most critical economist regarding the institutional failures of the monetary union. He considers that the European Banking Union will only benefit EU Northern countries, and adds that the basic principles of the euro zone have not been entirely followed.
LONDON | By BARCLAYS | Euro area industrial production rose significantly by 1.0% m/m in August, broadly in line with our expectations (+0.9% m/m, consensus: +0.8% m/m). This increase offset the drop recorded in July entirely.
MILAN| By Fabrizio Goria via Presseurop | Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems assured of victory, the German elections will be revelatory. The results should bring answers to a number of open questions concerning the future of the economy and of European institutions.