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volatility

Markets 18th September 2013

Whatever happened to September volatility?

By Barry Knapp (Barclays) | There is a key difference from the surprisingly low volatility Septembers in 2009-12. In that period, the Fed was either buying assets or had pre-announced a new program; this year, it is preparing to weaken the portfolio balance effect. In our view, for equities to overcome unfavorable seasonality and another round of fiscal concerns, fundamentals, which have been mediocre for over a year, due primarily to weakening global and soft domestic growth, will have to improve considerably.

No Picture

World economy 18th September 2013

Fed’s Wavering Mood

MADRID | By J.P. Marin Arrese | When it comes to make a decision, a central banker is not supposed to hesitate, otherwise bewilderment and dismay will take in and lead to utter economic disarray. Mr Bernanke is bound to keep his word about tapering. And he has very little time to deliver before leaving office.

Chinatapering

Markets 18th September 2013

How Fed’s Tapering Will Affect China

BEIJING | By Hong Hao via Caixin Magazine | The answers to how the Fed’s tapering will impact the market seem a little too obvious: the consensus is that tapering will jolt market interest rates substantially higher and thus provide headwinds for the market. Further, there is the belief that given China’s closed capital accounts, tapering will be inconsequential for its markets. I beg to differ.

money

World economy 17th September 2013

Fed’s meeting and German elections, events you don’t want to miss

MADRID | By Francisco López | Mark your calendars. For the first time in quite some time two major events for the future of markets and EU’s banking union are taking place in less than a month: the Fed’s meeting next Wednesday and the German elections on September 22. Is the tapering starting and by how much? Will Angela Merkel have to find a new political partner? 

No Picture

Markets 13th September 2013

John Taylor & Bob Hall get it backward

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | In a recent post John Taylor leans on Bob Hall to criticize NGDP Targeting. He goes: “In his paper at the recent Jackson Hole conference, Bob Hall criticized nominal GDP targeting, citing his 1994 paper with Greg Mankiw. Bob argues that “A policy of stabilizing nominal GDP growth would require contractionary policies to lower inflation when productivity growth is unusually high. Such a policy might easily trigger a spell at the zero lower bound.”

No Picture

World economy 9th September 2013

May an intervention in Syria harm the U.S. economic recovery?

NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | Barack Obama will give six interviews to U.S. media this Monday to build public support about an intervention in Syria. The White House is using its lobbying skills to make a case for an action that for some analysts could compromise the last good economic data.

 

emergingmarkets

World economy 26th August 2013

Monetary policy: the dam might leak

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s stern warning on potential problems ahead for emerging countries has been delivered in rather a blunt way: “even with the best of efforts the dam might leak”. At the annual Fed gathering in Wyoming she claimed “further lines of defence” were needed to address a financial crisis. The hike in interest rates following the prospect of a progressive tapering in asset purchases by the US, has induced a sharp reversal in fund flows between developed and emerging markets.