MADRID | March 27, 2015 | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is currently growing at cruising speed and looks set to remain at its current altitude in the medium term, with the possibility that growth could exceed 3% this year.
The Corner | March 6, 2015 | In yet more positive news for the Spanish economy, influential foundation FUNCAS has revised its growth projections upwards for 2015 to 3%. Increased consumption and an improvement in the construction sector are the chief reasons for the upward trend.
BRUSSELS | March 5, 2015 | By Alexandre Mato | When presenting its annual report, ‘Going for growth’ in Brussels, the Paris-based institution raised some doubts about the ongoing recovery in Europe. Structural, long-term unemployment and low productivity in some Member States are becoming the main economic issues of concern, with neither investment nor fiscal adjustments seen as the antidote.
MADRID | March 3, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | The creation of 13,500 new jobs in January is in line with encouraging figures elsewhere in the Spanish economy. While there will rightly be optimism in the wake of the latest data, the worrying plight of the youth and long-term unemployed continue to cause concern.
Iris Mir | China aims to recover the ancient Silk Road to create an unprecedented trade link between Asia and Europe. Least developed Chinese provinces would also benefit largely from the ‘one belt, one road’ project as Beijing will need to invest greatly in infrastructure and high-speed railways. Local governments see the project as a golden opportunity to revive stagnating growth.
MADRID | The Corner | Things are looking up for Spanish car manufacturers, and with exports expected to remain strong,2015 looks like being another good year.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We review some of the key Eurozone developments of 2014, and look ahead to 2015 and beyond. Eurozone growth has disappointed in 2014, mainly due to Germany, France and Italy. Economic performance over the coming months is likely to remain subdued, given various risk factors, which are likely to weigh on sentiment.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What has growth to do with growing inequality? Until recently, we thought that inequality favoured growth, or in anycase it had a neutral impact on it. Growth was the “best supplier” to create new opportunities, through the vertical mobility of the most flexible countries. But the OECD released this report showing how inequality “significantly” curbs economic prosperity. And yet, Krugman is skeptical that the inverse correlation between inequality and growth is so obvious. According to him, strong evidence is lacking, and there are signs that part of inequality can be cured with growth.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | The initial move in oil price was greeted as stimulating growth. The precipitous decline is triggering destabilising factors, especially in EM. As the US economy has accelerated, concern is growing that the Fed is about to shift policy in ways suited to its domestic objectives but not to the needs of increasingly stressed emerging and commodity producing countries and companies. In short, uneven global growth is simultaneously raising the spectre of unsustainable debt deflation across important parts of the (mostly emerging) world and a tightening of US dollar liquidity precisely when it is most needed.
MADRID | The Corner | According to Patrice Gautry, chief economist at UBP, there is little doubt that monetary policy – due to be presented in detail at the beginning of next year – will be revised and reshuffled as follows: 1) bigger ECB spending; 2) more of a focus on private and public bond purchases rather than on LTROs and ABS and CoCo purchases.In short, broadened QE should kick in on 22 January, at the next ECB meeting.