MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | As we move into troubled waters following the FED intention to taper off its massive asset buying scheme, the ECB is bound to take bold steps to protect both the European economies and the common currency. Otherwise we may run into severe turbulences in the coming months.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo. In July the American GDP will go up, although the economy won’t even feel it. Nor the so-called sequester or the Fed massive debt purchases have anything to do with it. Oil prices and the dollar are also out of the equation. The key: R&D will be considered as an investment.
MADRID | By Carlos Díaz Guell | The future of Spain’s economic growth is uncertain, especially since the crisis has proved that many industries only worked when fueled by subsidies. Exports seem to be the country’s only hope and politicians are too busy fighting to make productivity, R&D investment or education a priority.
China turns into a urban nation. A transformation that entails a dramatic achievement and a challenge without precedents in the world. As cities become better places to live they become more expensive too, to the extent that people can’t afford the luxury of inhabiting these mega-cities. Without a fairer model, which fosters job creation and an equal access to resources, urbanization risks undermining the country’s transition towards domestic consumption.
MADRID | By Javier Flores, analyst at Asinver | The question, of course, is how long it will take for the curve to head downwards. No expansion lasts for ever.
BEIJING | In his last speech the outgoing Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, acknowledged the social challenges China is dangerously facing. The new leadership will have to deal with local governments and State Owned Enterprises ready to defend their current status quo and likely to be sceptical about any form of reform.
MADRID | Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve: “Why couldn’t we grow by a higher rate? Because people still are in the middle of a deleveraging process, which makes it near impossible that consumption takes off again.”
China’s economic miracle was possible thanks to three decades of cheap manufacturing and exports. Thousands of workers left their villages to become the cheap labour force of China’s southern cities. Now this is a thing of the past.
Public spending can be cut down particularly when there is growth and economy expands. One has only to look at the US’ GDP to learn a powerful lesson: austerity untimely implemented does more harm than good.
China’s growth for 2012 was released by mid-January: an overall growth of a 7.8% with a slight increase of 0.1 points for the last quarter, topping a 7.9%. The widely expected figure was the lowest since 1999. But is this a negative or a positive sign?