AXA IM | At the time of writing, Hillary Clinton enjoys a near 2 point lead over Donald Trump in the national polls. This lead had narrowed to almost a 1 point gap recently – the smallest since the brief lead Trump held over Clinton at the time of the Republican convention. The polls appear equally tight if we look at the likely battleground states. Exhibit 2 illustrates a mixed picture in terms of Clinton or Trump leads in key US states.