Santander | It is one of the first headlines from last night’s FOMC minutes. Fed staff members go from assigning a near 50% probability, to now forecasting a mild recession. With the Fed also nearing the end of the cycle, it is no surprise that some dissenting voices are beginning to appear, opening the door to new bouts of volatility that have not favoured the credit market (MOVE/Main correlation of…
Renta 4 : European stock markets open almost flat (Eurostoxx futures -0.2%, S&P futures 0%), on a day in which the main reference will be the US March inflation data (2:30pm). The market expects further moderation in headline CPI (5.1%e vs 6% year-on-year), but a rebound in core CPI (5.6%e vs 5.5% previously) after five consecutive months of decline from a peak of 6.6%. We will see its impact on…
Link Securities | Bloomberg reported on Thursday that, according to the ECB’s monthly survey, inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 4.6% in February from 4.9% in January. In addition, inflation expectations for the next three years fell to 2.4% from 2.5% the previous month. In addition, according to the survey, economic growth expectations for the next 12 months continued to rise, from -1.2% to -0.9%. Meanwhile, 12-month…
CoM | Annual inflation in the eurozone will be 6.9% in March 2023, down from 8.5% in February, according to a preliminary estimate by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Regarding the main components of eurozone inflation, food, alcohol and tobacco, they are expected to record the highest annual rate in March (15.4%, up from 15.0% in February), followed by non-energy industrial goods (6.6%, up from 6.8% in…
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in March compared to the previous month and cut its year-on-year rate by more than 2.5 points to 3.3%, its lowest value since August 2021, according to advanced data published on Thursday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).This moderation in the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI places inflation at its lowest level since August 2021, when a rate of 3.3% was…
Intermoney | The same could be said of the update of the macro picture forecasts. Economic projections are not necessarily a roadmap for policy and are subject to change. In fact, they have been changing from quarter to quarter. The projections point to inflation at 3.6% this year, one tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast in December. In 2024 it will moderate (2.6%), but it will not be…
Bad news for Spanish families. Despite the fact that general inflation is set to moderate in the coming months, food prices will continue to give households’ pockets no respite. This is what the Bank of Spain warned on Wednesday during the presentation of its quarterly report on macroeconomic projections. The report is confident that, despite the upturn in inflation in January and February, the general CPI will resume the deceleration…
The eurozone’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 8.5% in February, down one tenth of a percentage point from January, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, while the underlying rate, which excludes the effect of energy and food, climbed to a record 5.6%. In this way, the year-on-year inflation rate in the euro area accumulates four consecutive months of deceleration and stood at its lowest level since May 2022, before…
Bankinter | The US inflation published today is for February, so we should not expect it to ease because it still compares with months in 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine and, therefore, before the sharp price rises. That means that the real litmus test for inflation (both American and European) will take place between April and July, when the March-June records are published. It was in those months that…
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% in February compared to the previous month and raised its year-on-year rate by one tenth of a percentage point, to 6%, due to the increase in electricity, package holidays and food, which saw their prices rise by 16.6% compared to February 2022 despite the measures taken by the government, according to the final data published on Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute…