WASHINGTON | Second part of our conversation with Colin Fenton, global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. What will be the effect of the closing of Iranian exports to Europe. Will it take a lot of time or effort to adapt European oil refineries to other types of oil? It always take some time to adapt, and reorientation of supply pathways, especially with trade barriers, tends to have…
WASHINGTON | Colin Fenton is the global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Fenton believes that there is margin for higher energy prices, with limited economic damage. Brent and WTI are behaving virtually like “two different commodities”, as one trader put it last week. Asia, tied to Brent oil, has relatively strong oil demand and limited supply, while the US is experiencing an energy production renaissance in the context…
According to JP Morgan, taking the last 30 years, it appears evident that the S&P500 has an average annual return of 7.5%, which makes sense considering an average annual inflation of 3.5% coupled with an average GDP increase of 3% (as an average of the cycles), plus a modest risk premium added. “The greatest deviations in the last 30 years from this trend occurred during the tech bubble and the credit…
One would think it’s all rumours and half-baked drafts more akin to belong to a neverending script than to the global finances’ reality, but that doesn’t prevent financial institutions from making a serious effort to analyse possible and probable results of their implementation. JP Morgan says “The possibility that any important news/measure comes out of some of the many meetings/summits that are planned for the next week and a half,…
NEW YORK | Financial Times’s interview with Jamie Dimon was intended to create momentum. JP Morgan’s chief executive is now attacking new banking rules by Basel committee, trying to convince against the new regulation to water down Basel III the same way the major US banks have lobbied in Washington to water down Dodd-Frank Act, Obama’s new set of rules after the financial crisis. Dimon’s argument goes like this: the Basel…