Central banks do not do miracles
Fernando Fernández (IEAF) | Perhaps the moment has arrived to abandon the temptation to arbitrate, to recover humility and discuss what should be the aim of monetary policy.
monetary policy
Real estate sector: Monetary policy and bond IRR could boost investment flows
Morgan Stanley | As we indicated in our last real estate strategy report, this has been the worst sector in Europe in 2Q19 (oversold and with a relative performance of 3.5sd below its 12MA). This has been mainly motivated by concerns about the proposal to freeze rental prices in the city of Berlin (and its possible spread to other cities in the country) as well as the uncertainty regarding Brexit.
QE returns: the ECB would start as early as 4Q19 with €45bn monthly repurchase
Low growth below the 2% threshold coupled with below-target inflation has led our macros to believe that the ECB is taking extra stimulus for granted. This would mean the return of the centra banks’ asset repurchase program, experts at Morgan Stanley point out..
Lagarde expected to continue ECB’s super-accommodative ways
David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Christine Lagarde’s appointment was somewhat of surprise where few economists predicted her to take the helm of the ECB. This gives some indication of how complex the negotiations were for the new EC governing positions.
Rethinking the limits of monetary policy
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | In recent years there has been a debate in academic circles about the limits of monetary policy, once the barrier of negative interest rates has been crossed. With the additional problem that not even in Japan, where the natural interest rate has spent practically two decades in negative territory, has the central bank dared to dive deep into the zone of below zero interest rates, even though the economy has been stuck in a deflationary stagnation which has given birth to new economic jargon (japanisation) to refer to this type of economic process. The doubt is whether the Bank of Spain got is wrong by not using monetary policy more intensively or got it right be assessing the risks of traveling in this unknown territory as greater than the possible benefits.
ECB loose policy messages favour undervalued Euro
“Beyond our scepticism about the ability of new stimulus measures to drive the economy, we recognise that the ECB is obliged to act which will create a situation unfavourable for its inflation targets,” analysts at Intermoney point out. In this scenario, we consider that the reactivation of asset purchases with certain adjustments (based on the reality of German debt) would be the measure with the greatest positive impact, more so than interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, if the second path is explored, it would be accompanied by measures to mitigate the effect of negative rates on the banking sector.
The ECB “does not give up” to low inflation
The European Central Bank will have to relax its monetary policy again, possibly through further reductions in interest rates or the purchase of assets, if inflation in the eurozone does not meet its target. Chairman Mario Draghi underlined that the ECB’s the limits are flexible because the its legal powers allow it to deploy tools that are both “necessary and proportionate”.
US labour market is weakening, but not by much
Despite weak employment creation data, analysts at DWS point out that the US labour market probably remains too vigorous in general to justify the Fed cutting interest rates.
Jerome Powell wrestles with an intricate conundrum
J. P. Marín-Arrese | US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the dilemma of choosing the right path, confronted with conflicting data and forecasts. While the US economy grew at a booming 4% rate in the first quarter, inflation trails far behind the Fed’s objective and salaries fail to pick up despite historically low levels of unemployment. Moreover, the trade tug-of-war with China is denting confidence in consumers and investors alike. Should the conflict turn worse, the economy might suffer a harsh blow.
Spanish and Italian banks will have access to fewer ECB funds with new TLTROs
Banca March | The ECB announced other limitations on liquidity that will make it difficult for peripheral banks to access the new TLTRO III.