Are falling oil prices an opportunity for Asia?
How will the recent plunge in oil prices affect Asian countries?
oil prices
The curse of cheap oil
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Why do they call Economics the Dismal Science? In theory, because it is about using limited resources to satisfy unlimited needs. In practice because, no matter what, everything is always bad in Economics. Case in point: cheap oil.
Is Repsol being excessively penalised?
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | Some analysts believe the Spanish oil company has been extremely punished by the markets. Repsol’s announcement of its pulling out of Canary Islands exploration on Friday, along with the fall in oil prices and the purchase of Talisman Energy (for more than for $8.3 billion), has put the firm under the spotlight.
Oil futures bet on a price below $70
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.
Spanish CPI falls by 7 tenths due to drop in oil prices
MADRID | The Corner | It was expected that the fall in the oil prices would have an impact on the Spanish CPI, and that is what has happened. The CPI dropped by six tenths in December with respect to the previous month, while it reduced its interannual rate by seven tenths to -1.1%. This fall is the result almost exclusively of the decline of the oil price, whose fluctuations represent more than 50% of the variability of the Spanish inflation.
Germany 2015: Some happy news, yet not enough to revive eurozone’s growth
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | The German economy has gone from growing at 0.8% q-o-q earlier this year to being on the verge of recession as a result of the geopolitical situation, especially after the sanctions against Russia. Only now in December the country seems to recover its confidence. However, an expected GDP growth of around 1% in 2015 continues to be insufficient to spur growth in the Eurozone.
Falling oil price: 4 wins for Germany
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We see 4 wins for Germany in a backdrop of falling oil prices
1) German equity market is not exposed to Oil & Gas earnings. 2) While our Oil & Gas analysts expect energy capex to fall by 10% (which could hurt a cyclical Germany), the overall fall to European capex is < 3%. Plus capex is already at a 23 year low – can it get much worse? 3) Our economists think lower oil triggers sovereign-based QE given their view it pushes CPI even lower than Tuesday’s 0.3%.
Lower oil prices will increase real income of Spanish households by 0.5% in 2015
MADRID | The Corner | In Spain, the fall in oil prices will be crucial for households throughout 2015. Market watchers at Afi say that the drop in the oil price will have a positive impact of 0.5% on the real income of households next year.
Falling oil prices are killing the ruble
MADRID | The Corner | The ruble plummeted on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis, plunging more than 6% against the dollar before recovering to losses of around 4% Lowering oil prices are killing the currency, and yet Moscow does not intend to cut production in 2015, leaving output at the current 525-526 million metric tons. Russian analysts commenting for The Corner explained there is enough currency liquidity in the market to handle the shock. At least for now.
All eyes on OPEC
MADRID | The Corner | Oil prices continue to fall ahead of the much-awaited OPEC meeting today, which will start at 9:00GMT –a press conference will be held at 15:00GMT. Brent crude and WTI both fell to four-year lows on concerns that oil producers will not make the large supply cuts needed to contain the slide. Analysts at Barclays believe that with an absence of basing signals for WTI crude, the risk remains lower towards 70.76. Will the oil cartel react?