Analysts at BofA Global Research still expect the global oil market to move into a 4.9mn b/d deficit in 4Q20 on the back of the OPEC+ cuts, supporting crude prices. Yet diesel and jetfuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market. So crude oil prices cannot really rally until distillate demand, jet fuel included, recovers to more normal levels in the next few months.
Darwei Kung (DWS) | The oil rally continues. On the supply side, OPEC and Rus-sia reached an agreement to extend the June production cap into July instead of implementing the planned scaling down of cuts. This is perhaps a sign that the major produc-ers are conscious of the oil market’s fragility despite the recent rise in oil prices. Large inventory overhangs support that fear. On the demand side, the re-opening of economies across the globe has brought significant optimism, even though the amount of realized demand that has emerged give little support for it.
BofA Global Research | The collapse in global oil benchmarks and weak North American differentials forced US and Canadian E&Ps to quickly dial back activity in order to avoid the cash burn from negative operating margins. Producers shut-in output, choked back wells, deferred completions and well starts, and pulled forward or extended oil sands maintenance to avoid exposure to low prices. In total, May oil curtailments may have exceeded 2.5mn b/d across the US and Canada and many producers pre-maturely announced plans for additional shut-ins during June. Since many of these plans were unveiled, oil prices have strengthened to levels where shutting-in no longer makes sense and should actually encourage producers to quickly restore production. For this reason, we expect June curtailments, particularly in the US, to be a fraction of the previously announced levels.
BoAmL | After an astonishing 90% increase in spot WTI prices since mid-February, oil market participants are now starting to focus on the timeframe and magnitude of a potential recovery in US shale output. But US producers have yet to bring some rigs back, and oil drilling across in Canada and the US has continued to retrench in recent months.
UBS | US E&Ps cut capex by ~40% YoY in 2015 & are budgeted to cut >50% YoY this year. This has caused the US oil rig count to plunge from a peak of 1,609 in 2H14 to 328 (7- year low). But as spot WTI prices have moved from <$30/Bbl earlier this year to ~$46/Bbl currently, one of the key questions energy investors are asking is when will US E&Ps begin to add rigs?
UBS | Improved EM asset performance this year has been driven by a) the tremendous credit stimulus from China, b) a change in the reaction function of the Fed, which helped EM currencies rally against the USD, and, c) the rebalancing in the oil market. Investors are already questioning the first two, but oil has continued to trade very well.
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We see 4 wins for Germany in a backdrop of falling oil prices
1) German equity market is not exposed to Oil & Gas earnings. 2) While our Oil & Gas analysts expect energy capex to fall by 10% (which could hurt a cyclical Germany), the overall fall to European capex is < 3%. Plus capex is already at a 23 year low – can it get much worse? 3) Our economists think lower oil triggers sovereign-based QE given their view it pushes CPI even lower than Tuesday’s 0.3%.
MADRID | The Corner | Benchmark Brent crude dived on Tuesday to its lowest in five years, plummeting below $66 a barrel after plunging more than 4 percent the day before on worries of a swelling supply glut, according to Reuters. Oil prices are likely to remain around $65/barrel for the next six or seven months, the chief of Kuwait’s national oil company said on Monday, in the latest sign that Gulf producers are ready to ride out plunging prices. According to experts at Link, this could lead to tensions on the money markets.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The collapse in the price of raw materials in the last number of weeks is good news for consumers, but very bad news in macroeconomic terms because of the heightened risk of deflation in the eurozone. Oil continues to plummet and a barrel of Brent is now priced at $82, 30%, lower than its June level and is currently trading at a four year low.